Posted 25 марта 2022,, 13:02
Published 25 марта 2022,, 13:02
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Sergey Vasilyev, entrepreneur, publicist
We live in historical days!
The transfer of payment for Russian gas, and later possibly other export resources of Russia, into rubles radically changes the external and internal disposition of the country's economy.
Let's take a closer look.
Let's start with the external disposition.
What does it mean for buyers of Russian gas in Europe to buy it for rubles? What does this mean for them technically? First of all, these buyers must learn to buy rubles with their existing euros, dollars, or Japanese yens. To do this, these buyers will have to open ruble accounts in Russian banks, because. Rubles are available only in Russian banks. Or open these ruble accounts in their Western banks, which, in turn, must have their own correspondent accounts in Russian banks.
In principle, this is not so difficult to do. This is a purely technical task, and many Western banks have long opened such ruble accounts for their clients. The same Western subsidiaries that have subsidiary banks in Russia will open them easily. And Russian banks themselves will quickly open such accounts for Western clients.
The main thing for Western clients will be that their dollars reach a Russian bank and be converted into rubles through the stock exchange for settlements with Gazprom.
And here buyers of Russian gas will be interested that these Russian banks are not under sanctions, are free to work on such operations and do not depend on geopolitics. Thus, buyers of gas and other Russian resources are becoming interested in the stability of our banks and in the absence of any sanctions against them.
Today, for Putin, this is the first task that he wants to solve by introducing such a revolutionary measure as payments for gas with Western countries in rubles.
But this move has another aspect that is deeper in its consequences. It is connected not with the external, but with the internal disposition of the Russian economy. With such a new disposition, our exporters, the Russian budget and the central bank will no longer receive foreign currency.
Now they will receive only rubles!
This radically changes the entire internal landscape. If exporters and the budget (in the form of taxes) will receive only rubles, then who will receive dollars? Where will they go? Importers will buy dollars through the exchange for settlements under their import contracts, the population, for their own personal purposes, such as for tourism, companies for settlements on foreign currency loans, etc.
And it turns out that for the first time in our recent history, the Central Bank and the budget will be interested not in the devaluation of the ruble, but, on the contrary, in the growth of the ruble.
From now on, excess currency from the sale of energy resources abroad will not accumulate in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank, but on correspondent accounts of commercial banks and spread throughout the economy through the bank multiplier, increasing the monetary base and ensuring economic growth.
Until now, the entire “profit” of the Russian economy from ruble devaluations has accumulated in the form of excess gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank, which was the main beneficiary of such devaluation. He accumulated this "profit" in the West, which, at this acute geopolitical moment, froze these reserves. Now the entire economy of the country will become the beneficiary, because the money will not accumulate excessively in gold reserves, but will spread through loans and investments throughout the economy.
The transfer of payments for gas in rubles kills two birds with one stone.
It insures the incoming currency against the risks of arrest and sanctions, but the main thing is to saturate the economy with this money, and not leave their surplus in the West, as it was before.