Posted 4 апреля 2022,, 11:17
Published 4 апреля 2022,, 11:17
Modified 25 декабря 2022,, 20:55
Updated 25 декабря 2022,, 20:55
Dmitry Milin, analyst
The refusal of the US and the EU from Russian energy resources will result in the fact that gas and oil suppliers to Asia, having redirected their supplies to the EU, will be replaced by suppliers from Russia for one simple reason: all the oil and gas in the world has already been "attached" and new volumes for there is simply nowhere to get replacement supplies from the Russian Federation.
Accordingly, the role of the dollar/euro in world trade will also change. The Saudis are already close to switching to the yuan in trade with China, which will lead to the end of the "oil-dollar" era and a reduction in the share of the dollar in world circulation.
The arrest, with the prospect of confiscation, of the huge Russian foreign exchange reserves is a severe blow to the entire Western banking system. Not only Russia will look for and build (!!!) its own alternative banking systems and look for alternative currencies, but many countries that understand that they can become the next victims of robbery for political reasons. Yes, over time, the MIR card will be accepted for payment by many countries of the world.
The ban on the supply of components, which came in the wake of the pandemic supply disruption, will lead to an understanding of the need to have the most complete supply chains at home or diversified sources of supply of components from different countries. In the long term, this will lead to the creation of several separate technological zones.
Sanctions against Russians, which are rightly compared to the persecution of Jews before WW2, will lead to the fact that rich (both oligarchs and the upper/middle class of the corrupt bureaucracy) Russians will be replaced by poor refugees from Ukraine. This will deal a heavy blow to the luxury segment of manufacturers in Europe. The contingent of their buyers will be reduced numerically and, on average, will become poorer. And the manufacturers of expensive yachts in Germany are also not particularly enviable.
In Russia, about 500 leasing boards of foreign aircraft "hung up". If the Russian Federation nevertheless gives them to their owners, then 500 aircraft will fall out onto the world market at a time, which will become competitors for new aircraft from Boeing and Airbus, which will also have to cut production.
It will be interesting! There will be new opportunities, including for Russia, which one would not want to miss.