Posted 11 апреля 2022,, 07:37

Published 11 апреля 2022,, 07:37

Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36

Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36

Experts on the results of the 1st round of elections in France: it will be difficult for Macron, but he will win

Experts on the results of the 1st round of elections in France: it will be difficult for Macron, but he will win

11 апреля 2022, 07:37
Фото: Соцсети
As expected, the first round of the French presidential election did not reveal a winner: incumbent President Macron won 28.1% of the vote and advanced to the second round along with Le Pen, who has 24.5% of the vote. Another candidate, the leftist anti-globalist Melenchon, unexpectedly for many, scored 21.57%.

Experts assessed the situation in different ways, some were alarmed because in the last elections Macron was ahead of Le Pen by a wide margin, others consider this result to be natural, and Macron’s victory in the second round is a settled matter.

Marine Le Pen is doomed to be forever second

Brief expert explains why nationalist Le Pen won't be able to win:

  1. Le Pen's project is steadily working to win systemic candidates and successfully stops the risks of social discontent.
  2. The right-wing conservative project is limited in its electoral and resource opportunities, and is a kind of artificial simulacrum in contemporary French politics.
  3. Nationalist demand is reduced by the policy of rejecting radical discourse.
  4. Emmanuel Macron will definitely win.

The Friedrich channel analyst, on the contrary, assesses the results as alarming for Europe:

“Difficult times call for a unequivocal position. Macron tried to play with everyone. Here is the result: after counting 77% of the votes: Macron - 27.25%, Le Pen - 26.09.

And it's not that Le Pen's position is stronger. Here, rather, a mutual protest vote - she received the votes of those who disagree with Macron and vice versa. And this is a very dangerous signal. Not only for France, but for the entire European Union. In troubled times, power is easy to drop. But the most radical and straightforward ones pick it up.”

The policy of Kirill Goncharov is also worried about the number of French people who supported the extremists:

“Le Pen (23.6) + Zemour (7) + Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (1.8) = 32.4%. + Melenchon (20.1%) = 52.5%

52.5% of the French supported real extremists.

It is as if in Russia the Left Front, the Liberal Democratic Party and Prilepin received a similar result. Censorship. It is clear that most of them will support Macron, but the very fact of such a number of radical French people is very alarming.”

Journalist Kirill Shulika predicted Macron's victory, calling Le Pen "forever second":

“In France, the second round will still be interesting.

Mélenchon took the position of Yavlinsky in 1996, who called for not voting for the communists. So he called not to vote for Le Pen. Although it is clear that most of the almost 20% of the votes will go to Macron, but not all.

Valerie Pekress has 4.7%, she herself supported Macron, but the voters, as the politician noted, are free in their choice. I note that the Gaullists in France have already degraded to mice.

The call for supporters to support Macron was made by the Green candidate Yannick Jadot (4.02%), the national secretary of the French Communist Party Fabien Roussel (2.4%), the candidate of the Socialist Party and the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo (1.76%).

Le Pen was supported by Eric Zemmour (6.65%), this is the French edition of Dugin, and the head of the right-wing opposition movement "Arise, France" Nicolas Dupont-Agnan (2.37%).

As for the completely leftists, that is, all sorts of Trotskyists like Natalie Artaud, there are less than 1% of the votes, but even they are not ready to directly support Macron, following the example of Melenchon, in fact.

So the alignment of 52/48% in the second round in favor of Macron may well be.

The Le Pen family is both Zyuganov and Zhirinovsky in our publication, his ambition to be forever second. Just as Zyuganov does not renounce the cavernous and wild Stalinism, so Le Pen does not move from election to election in the direction of the Gaullists, who are experiencing a personnel crisis. Moreover, in many ways Le Pen is needed for the Gaullists to have a crisis.”

Macron failed on all fronts

An expert on international relations Daria Platonova analyzed the situation in the Nezygar channel in detail:

“This duel is a battle between two worldviews and ideological attitudes. Macron is a consistent supporter of globalism and big capital, a figure supported by the Rothschilds. Le Pen is a supporter of sovereign France, independent of external forces and NATO. (...) Macron impatiently imposed more and more new sanctions, not thinking about the consequences for France, while Le Pen rightly noted that they hit the French economy itself.

French political analyst Jérôme Fourque calls the confrontation between Le Pen and Macron a battle between "France from the bottom and France from the top". And the French political scientist Alain De Benoit adds that these elections are generally a confrontation between the people and the oligarchy.

Despite the fact that Macron made it to the second round, dissatisfaction with the president is growing. In France, there is even a special term for Macron's "failed policy" - "macronism". “Macronism” is also a prolonged economic crisis with constant inflation and the incessant rise in prices for gasoline, gas and diesel, which has significantly intensified after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions. This is a migration catastrophe and the inability to protect people from Islamists even in prison (the high-profile case of the murder of a Frenchman Colonna by a radical Islamist). These are failures in foreign policy: from the failure of the "peacekeeping mission" to the neo-colonial policy in Africa, which resulted in the withdrawal of France from Mali. Macron is also blamed for openly pro-American sympathies, which are manifested in his government's cooperation with American consulting firms that are in alliance with the CIA.

The outcome of the second round is not determined, the polls predict very close positions of the candidates. They go as equals. The extremely popular conservative politician Zemmour and the sovereignist Dupont-Aignan have already called for Le Pen to vote. For Macron Pekress, Jadot and a number of candidates who did not pass the 5% barrier. And Pekress herself cannot be responsible for the entire Republican Party, since her colleague, the star of the Republican Party, Eric Siotti, said that he was not going to vote for Macron. The main intrigue of the elections is the left-wing anti-globalist politician Mélenchon, who unexpectedly won a lot of votes, and is very popular among the yellow vests. His entire campaign was built on a fierce critique of "Macronism" and, although he now says that he does not support Le Pen, his supporters nevertheless can make a different choice, because Macron is an absolute evil for them. (“We know who we will never vote for. You should not give your vote to Marine Le Pen. So that you understand me well, I repeat once again - not a single vote for Madame Le Pen, said Melashon , ed.) They are for him definitely won't vote. The question is, will they vote for Le Pen…”

The nickname "liberal" for Russia is the worst

But the journalist and political scientist Boris Mezhuyev wonders why Macron is so hated in Russia:

“I have nothing against the victory of Marine Le Pen, but why is Macron causing such a heart-rending reaction? Sarkozy, who, together with the British, forced the US to destroy Gaddafi, did not evoke such a reaction. Hollande, in my opinion, did not cause any at all. Macron is hated here more than Boris Johnson. It would seem that we don’t care about his orientation, whether he worked for the Rothschilds or for the Rockefellers, it would seem that the only important thing is that of all the European globalists he held the most conciliatory position towards Russia. Unfortunately, the answer is obvious. The main enemy for the patriots is a liberal who is well disposed towards Russia. With his good attitude, he strengthens the Liberal Party in Russia. A liberal who has a bad attitude towards Russia weakens this party. And accordingly, it is weakened by the anti-liberal, who treats Russia well. An anti-liberal who treats it badly is a legitimate enemy and can also be tolerated. But here is an external liberal-conciliator - this is the worst thing.

It seems to me that I parted ways with our patriotic mainstream primarily because of this transfer of domestic policy to foreign policy. It seemed to me that if we really want some isolation from the West, we must learn to look at their leaders without fears and predilections, only through the prism of national interests. But there were other calculations that seemed frankly harmful to me.

Meanwhile, the French media publish the results of polls that show that Macron will win in the second round as well - on average, 54% of voters are ready to vote for him, 46% for Le Pen.

If Macron wins in the second round, he will do what no French president has done since Jacques Chirac - get re-elected for a second term.