Jump over the head: what promises the national project in the field of electronics

The preliminary concept of a new national project in the field of electronics was prepared by the government, Kommersant reports. Until 2030, 3.19 trillion rubles will be spent on it. The main thing in it is a sharp increase in the number of design centers and stimulation of demand for Russian electronics through subsidies. So that by 2030 up to 30% will be transferred to it. The country will launch serial production of processors comparable to those used in the iPhone 5S.

The implementation of the national project will go in four directions: product, infrastructure, demand, personnel, for which separate federal projects will be prepared.

So, for example, the direction "Personnel" will require 309 billion rubles. to conduct 2,000 research projects and create 400 prototypes of new electronics. Personnel conversion of university graduates will increase from 5% to 35%, and at least 1000 project teams will appear on the basis of training design centers.

In the “Product” direction (the amount of funding is 1.14 trillion rubles), in 2022 a program will be launched to reengineer foreign solutions and transfer their production to the Russian Federation and China, as well as a program for the development of electronic engineering. By 2024, 100% import substitution in all areas will be ensured, and by 2030, "the formation of a product portfolio of Russian technologies has been completed".

The “Infrastructure” column (460 billion rubles by 2030) provides for the launch this year of the production of microelectronics according to the 90 nm topology (it was mastered by Intel in 2004 on the Pentium 4 Prescott processor), and by 2030 to enter the serial production of electronics according to the topology 28 nm (mastered by leading vendors in 2010; for example, Apple A7 processors for the iPhone 5S were produced using this process technology). By 2030, it is planned to increase the number of Russian design centers from 70 to 300.

The Demand direction will require 1.28 trillion rubles to stimulate the purchase of Russian electronics through through projects, the demand for which will be guaranteed by the largest corporations and companies. The state subsidizes up to 50% of such contracts, so that by 2030 the share of domestic electronics in the public procurement market will be 100%, and 30% of households in Russia will use it.

However, the publication cites the opinions of the market participants themselves, who assess these goals as ambitious and almost unrealizable. In particular, one of the experts believes: “They want to increase the number of design centers to 300 by 2030. Each should employ at least 100 specialized specialists, that is, we are talking about 30-50 thousand people. Taking into account the fact that the training cycle for a specialized specialist is at least eight to nine years, these 50,000 people should already be entering universities”.

Network analyst Dmitry Milin expresses his thoughts on this news:

The thesis - "In 2022, the authorities will launch a program to reengineer foreign solutions and transfer their production to the Russian Federation and China" - reminds "and the mistress of the sea", i.e. will our government clerks now decide for China? Although the reality is worse - state money will be withdrawn to China, as it used to be to the West, in order to get into the pockets of officials and persons affiliated with them. In reality, all "import substitution" will come down to the usual replacement of domestic and Western equipment with Chinese.

Another thesis - “The authorities plan to stimulate the purchase of Russian electronics through end-to-end projects, which assume that the largest corporations and companies will guarantee the demand for domestic electronics, and the state subsidizes up to 50% of the amount of such contracts. The government expects that thanks to these measures, 30% of households in Russia will use mainly Russian electronics by 2030,” state corporations and companies are stimulating, and the result is “30% of households with Russian electronics”? The level of planning "elder, uncle, Kiev"...