Posted 20 апреля 2022,, 16:47
Published 20 апреля 2022,, 16:47
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Financial analyst Pavel Spaidel analyzed the performance of the Russian budget for the first three months of 2022. It turned out that spending on national defense and health care grew abnormally in March: the first - by 143 billion (+ 37%) compared to March 2021, and the second - by almost 5 times by 196 billion rubles!
“I can’t yet judge what exactly is the reason for such an increase in health care costs – the treatment of the wounded during the SVO or deferred infrastructure costs within the perimeter of the Ministry of Health. So far, unprecedented growth has only been recorded, if everything is logical with national defense, then there are big questions with healthcare...
These two categories account for 54% of the total increase in all federal budget expenditures. However, oil and gas revenues increased by 626 billion (+108%), which fully “defends” my thesis at the beginning of March that Europe generously pays all the costs of NWO.
Overall, the budget looks great for March, with total spending up 36% or $629bn, but it's being offset by oil and gas revenues as the domestic economy shrinks.
For the first three months, the structure of the federal budget is very stable. Revenues confidently exceed expenses - 7.2 trillion against 6 trillion, the budget surplus set an absolute record for the beginning of the year at the level of 1.15 trillion rubles. The Ministry of Finance did not carry out net borrowing in the domestic market, only 76 billion compared to 625 billion in 2021, 227 billion in 2020 and 309 billion in 2019.
At the same time, it repays the external debt at the highest rate in 10 years, reducing the external debt by 221 billion, while accumulating a money-box by about 980 billion rubles.
Now this is irrelevant, the NWF will no longer accumulate and the entire generated surplus will be distributed to the economy. It will be great if they default on external obligations at the beginning of May, removing themselves from these meaningless external obligations to countries that have changed the rules of the game - there are no more rules and no obligations.
Oil and gas revenues almost doubled, total spending increased by $1 trillion, or 20%. The entire increase in spending came in March. So the budget is still in order!”
Economist Dmitry Prokofiyev does not share Speidel's optimism. And that's why:
“I noticed that the phrase “income growth” disappeared from all the boss’s rhetoric.
Here are some of the words bosses don’t utter: “supporting the economy”, “structural transformation”, “soft loans”, “subsidizing the rate”, “gray imports”, “reducing pressure”, even “lack of inflation containment”, well, there are a lot of Total.
And, by the way, the authorities are willingly pouring figures in all directions - three billion here, one hundred and three billion there. But the bosses do not say the cherished words about “growth in people's incomes” - whether it will be, what and when.
This happens because the authorities are smart, and they know what can be said and what is not necessary.
All these stories about "structural transformation", "reformatting the order", and even "subsidizing import substitution" cannot be verified.
Well, there is no such measuring scale, applying which to “reformatting the order”, a person could say - ok, we are in place, the goal has been achieved.
It was like before with “building something-there” - it seems clear that we are going somewhere, but when we arrive and what will happen in the final is completely unknown.
And a person himself cannot evaluate the “reformatting of order” - either the order is no longer there, or it still exists. As the boss says.
But “income growth” (or lack of it) is a measurable thing, and measurable without the participation of superiors - a person can very much evaluate and measure it - recalculate his money and estimate what he can buy with it.
That's why bosses talk about anything - just not about what people could check for themselves. Yes, and all the more so because within the framework of “reformatting the order”, the growth of people’s incomes is not envisaged”.