Posted 25 мая 2022,, 09:18

Published 25 мая 2022,, 09:18

Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37

Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37

Financial analysts: the anomalous strengthening of the ruble will stop in two days

Financial analysts: the anomalous strengthening of the ruble will stop in two days

25 мая 2022, 09:18
On May 24, the Ministry of Finance reduced the requirement for the mandatory sale of exporters' foreign exchange earnings from 80% to 50%. This is one of the key easing, which is expected to strengthen the dollar.

But neither yesterday nor today the national currency did not react. Experts say it's temporary. The dollar will begin to rise in price from May 27.

Yekaterina Maksimova

The ruble, despite the efforts of the Ministry of Finance, continues to conquer peaks. On May 25, the dollar fell to 55.9 rubles, the euro again fell in price - to 57.8 rubles.

Experts explain the absence of a quick effect from the decision of the Ministry of Finance with the May peak of the tax period (companies transfer VAT, MET and excises to the budget) and the volume of trading in the foreign exchange market.

“The peak of the tax period falls on Wednesday - May 25, and Friday - May 27. Exporters are forced to sell large volumes of foreign currency. Most likely, after the end of the tax period, we will see a downward correction of the ruble, which may begin as early as next Friday”, - comments Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.

Analyst FG "Finam" Alexander Potavin specifies that on May 25, exporting companies will transfer VAT, MET and excises to the Russian budget, and on Friday, May 27 - income tax. These days the ruble can still continue strengthening, but, according to Potavin, we are talking about a price bias that will quickly come to naught.

An investment banker, HSE professor Yevgeny Kogan also told Novye Izvestia a few days ago that the anomalous ruble appreciation in May is a “one-off perturbation of the system.” And for the Ministry of Finance, this situation is intolerable. According to his forecast, a decrease in the sale of foreign currency by exporters from 80% to 50% will reduce the volume of ruble purchases by $100-200 million per day.

“This is a huge amount. Moreover, let's not forget that the foreign exchange market has become thinner now. According to the Moscow Exchange, the April volume of trading in the foreign exchange market amounted to 22 trillion rubles, which is 36% less than a year earlier. Therefore, any large purchase / sale affects the course more than before. That is why we are now seeing such an expensive ruble during the tax period. And that is why one should not underestimate the reduction in the standard from 80% to 50%”, - comments investment banker Kogan. He also adds that the reduction of the norm from 80% to 50% by itself will not reach the dollar exchange rate to the optimal marks for the country's budget of 75-80 rubles, but at least in a week or two it will certainly stabilize the ruble above 60.

Analyst of FC "Finam" Sergey Perekhod noted that today any forecasts about the price per dollar look ridiculous, since foreign trade is not in balance and the rate is determined by supply and demand "in the glass". At the same time, Sergei Perekhod does not rule out that the dollar exchange rate may exceed 70 rubles.

As Novye Izvestia reported, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation predicts that the average annual fluctuation of the ruble exchange rate this year will remain within the boundaries of 76.7 rubles per dollar.