Federal State Statistics Service announced a decrease in unemployment, but the labor market did not believe it

Yekaterina Maksimova

Everything is calm in Rosstat

The unemployment rate in Russia in April 2022 fell to 4%, follows from yesterday's Rosstat report on the socio-economic situation in Russia. In March, there were more unemployed - 4.1%.

According to the agency, in April the number of unemployed in Russia officially amounted to 3 million people. Of these, more than 51% are women. Rosstat also clarifies that 900 people living in rural areas have the status of "unemployed". Urban unemployed, respectively, 2.1 million people. The labor force, according to Rosstat, in April amounted to 74.9 million.

Against the backdrop of recent statements by Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova, the latest figures from Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service) look much more optimistic than one might expect. Earlier, RBC quoted Golikova: “On May 5 of this year, compared to March 1 of this year, for the first time, an increase in the number of unemployed citizens who were officially registered with the employment service was registered. The growth is about 4 thousand people. So far, this trend has not been observed".

Resume baskets

Unofficial, but more sensitive indicators - online recruitment sites, have recorded several trends in the labor market. Among them - a decrease in the number of vacancies, a multiple growth of posted resumes.

So, according to hh.ru , in April the number of ads from employers decreased by 12%. In all federal districts, the ratio of vacancies and resumes differs significantly. Here's how it looks in hh.ru analytics:

- Central Federal District (39.2 million people live). There are 1 million 779 thousand resumes for 266.5 thousand vacancies (7 people per vacancy);

-Privolzhsky Federal District (29 million people live). There are 684.2 thousand resumes for 128.7 thousand vacancies (5 people per vacancy);

-Siberian Federal District (17 million people live). There are 396.2 thousand resumes for 92.6 thousand vacancies (4 people per vacancy);

- Southern Federal District (16.4 million people live). 68.1 thousand vacancies account for 385.6 thousand resumes (6 people per vacancy);

-North-Western Federal District (13.9 million people live). At 93.1 thousand vacancies account for 590.5 thousand resumes (6 people per vacancy);

- Ural Federal District (12.3 million people live). 63.6 thousand vacancies account for 310.4 thousand resumes (5 people per vacancy);

- North Caucasian Federal District (9.9 million people live). 8.6 thousand vacancies account for 62.7 thousand resumes (7 people per vacancy);

- Far Eastern Federal District (8.1 million people live). There are 120.2 thousand resumes for 29.6 thousand vacancies (4 people per vacancy).

Alexey Mironov, Vice President for Operations at ANCOR, also notes a decrease in hiring activity and an increase in applicant activity, but with a caveat. The trend is temporary and it is connected "with a high degree of uncertainty" in the labor market.

“The ratio of vacancies and applicants has changed significantly in the direction that there are more applicants and fewer vacancies. The hiring activity of our clients at the moment fell by 2.5 times (from the figures for January and February of the current year). At the same time, job sites registered an increase in the activity of applicants, but this does not mean that many unemployed people have appeared. Applicant activity is associated with uncertainty. These are the jobseekers who have jobs, maybe sent to idle. And the fact that they have updated their CV means that they are worried and interested in an alternative option”, - comments Alexey Mironov.

Who is the first to leave

According to hh.ru, in the spring the number of vacancies in such professional areas as "personnel management, training", "PR, advertising", "civil service", "automotive business", "insurance" decreased by 22-29%. Insignificant growth (1-4%) was recorded in such areas as "science and education", "tourism, hotels", "home staff", "raw material extraction", "medicine, pharmaceuticals".

An increase in resumes (by 1-8%) was recorded in the sections "information technology, telecom", "marketing, PR", "administrative personnel", "service", "sales".

According to the Jobs in Russia portal, where more than 1.9 million vacancies were posted at the beginning of May, employers most often offered jobs in such areas as construction, healthcare, transport and trade.

Will there be a surge in unemployment

Alexey Mironov is confident that by the end of the year "we will see an increase in unemployment". "Without a doubt. The more important question is how much it will increase. I think it's hard to talk about it right now. And the highest degree of uncertainty with the geopolitical situation does not allow making forecasts. We will definitely see an increase in unemployment, but I dare to hope that it will be modest,” predicts ANCOR’s vice president of operations.

The Central Bank also indirectly declares this. In the next review of financial stability, the regulator, assessing the volume of trade turnover among SMEs, noted: “Since the decline in real money incomes of the population began in the first quarter of 2022, and the unemployment rate may increase in the coming months, representatives of SMEs expect a decrease in demand from the population below the level of pre-sanction consumption due to the economic downturn”.

Earlier, Kommersant, citing experts from the Center for Strategic Research (CSR), reported that by the end of 2022, the unemployment rate in Russia will be 7.1-7.8 percent. In this case, the national economy will lose about two million jobs.