Oil flows around the embargo: so far, sanctions only enrich Russia

Despite the embargo, the year turned out to be good for Russian oilmen, analysts of the channel "Markets. Money. Powers" write. First, unlike pipeline oil, its supply by tankers (and they account for two-thirds of Russian imports) is easier to manage. The European Union, having abandoned tanker oil from Russia, will begin to buy it in the Middle East, whose countries are the main suppliers of hydrocarbons to Asia. Then, according to analysts' forecasts, the situation is likely to change in this way: the Middle East will oust Russia in Europe, and Russia, in turn, will replace the Middle East in Asia.

In addition, according to Vedomosti, the average daily oil production in May increased by 0.2-0.3 million barrels per day. to the level of April and amounted to ~10.2 million barrels per day. Compared to last year, the volume of exports has not decreased, even through Western ports.

This happens, among other things, by circumventing the embargo. For example, the share of Greek tankers exporting oil from Russia by sea has already reached 64% of the total. Together with tankers from Cyprus and Malta (they are part of the “other” carriers in the diagram), these three EU countries (!), Turning a blind eye to European sanctions, already account for about three-quarters of the oil exported from Russia by sea.

All this leads to an increase in oil revenues even higher than forecasts made earlier by the Ministry of Finance

In addition, Russian oil companies have taken advantage of the departure of foreign companies and, according to some reports, are buying up their assets on the cheap. So Lukoil bought Shell gas stations for just a few million rubles, and Rosneft "received" the assets of the Norwegian Equinor and can buy its own 20% stake from BP "for a penny".

At the same time, oil prices in euros have already reached their highest level ever, coupled with increased transport and insurance costs.

According to financial analyst Pavel Spaidel, oil tanker insurance rates have risen to record levels. For example, tariffs via the Baltic sea route rose to $42 per ton of oil, which is 9 times higher than the average tariffs in 2021, and insurance via the Black Sea route is about 4 times higher than the average cost in 2021.

That is, now each barrel of oil costs buyers 5.3-5.7 dollars, which is almost 5 dollars more than in 2021. Moreover, these costs do not include the rental of tankers, loading and unloading of oil.

All this indicates that the anti-Russian oil embargo is still working against Europe itself.