Interesting arithmetic: how $40 billion of military aid to Ukraine turned into $10 billion

“For two weeks now, I have been surprised to see how a huge number of respected experts - military, political, spread through the media space, to put it mildly, not entirely accurate information.

For example, let's look at the respected Oleg Zhdanov:

“Aid for $40 billion is on its way, and it is about to arrive. Yes, it may not be included in the lend-lease framework, but this is additional money. Plus 11 billion US military aid, which we have already mastered at the first stage.

And another 40 billion since autumn... On the contrary, this is good news for us, because as I understand it, the amount of weapons should now be delivered to Ukraine for this amount, that in the autumn lend-lease will start working in the new financial year. And another $40 billion worth of weapons will come to Ukraine. Therefore, there is no malice. The weapons are coming, they are being delivered.”

I am not a colonel or a political expert, I am just an ordinary American, I have lived in Silicon Valley for 30 years, I speak English well, I know how to use the Internet. And we will look a little at the figures that Colonel Zhdanov announced.

So what I heard: America is giving 40 billion in military aid this fiscal year, 11 billion has already been spent by Ukraine, and the next 40 billion will be issued from October, that is, with the onset of the next fiscal year.

In total, I succeeded, from what I understood, listening to Oleg Zhdanov, America will give Ukraine weapons worth 91 billion dollars.

This is how I understood this view.

This figure has nothing to do with reality.

Let's see what is really happening.

Let's start with the first digit, everything is clear with it - something that has already been mastered.

Before us is the official website of the US Department of State, that is, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Here, as of June 1, 2022, we are told that $4.6 billion has been spent to support Ukraine since the start of hostilities. They also report where these amounts were spent.

That is, the president, without any authorization, without any permission, quite calmly, on the basis of the rights already granted to him, sent Ukraine 4.3 billion dollars (4.6 was said above - note "NI") , weapons.

Following. Congress tells us in what numbers these weapons were delivered - at least made public. Here is the table, from the website of the Congress, an official document. By numbers and dates, all these tables, all these deliveries.

In total, in fact, it was delivered - there is an error, apparently - 4 billion 260 million, of which 260 million were delivered last year, in August and December 2021, and, accordingly, this year it was delivered, or is on its way , exactly 4 billion dollars of American weapons, exactly.

Is it a lot or a little? This is about as much as Ukraine spent per year on its Delta weapons. Approximately, in total, this is one year of Ukrainian weapons.

What is interesting: in the nine weeks during which the war was going on, before the conference in Rammstein, about 3 billion were delivered, or about three thousand 40 million per week, that is, a weekly supply level of three thousand 40 million tons.

After the US Secretary of Defense said that he would move mountains and skies to help Ukraine, the level of supplies fell by almost two and a half times - to 136 million per week.

That is, over the past 7 weeks, it has been delivered, including 700 million that have not yet reached Ukraine, - only a billion.

Thus, the speed of deliveries, oddly enough, did not increase, but decreased.

These are facts, these are figures, it is impossible to argue with them.

Moving on to the next item: 40 billion announced by Congress and the Senate, and signed by the president, military assistance for Ukraine. Before us is this law: S3488, it has many pages. We will not read it, but we will read the Center for strategic and international studies, which made the analysis. I checked it and it is absolutely correct according to the law.

So, “Where does 40 billion aid go to Ukraine?” they write. Immediate military supplies are 19 billion, not 40 billion. Of which 6 billion goes to training, equipment, weapons, logistical support, ammunition, salaries, scholarships and everything else needed to train the Ukrainian army.

Following. 9 billion don't go to Ukraine. This money goes to the US Department of Defense to make up for what has already been sent before. At the same time, the author of the article says, 9 billion significantly exceeds what was delivered by 3.3 billion, which means that the Department of Defense expects a threefold increase in the cost of this replenishment.

That is, weapons for these 9 billion will not get into Ukraine.

There are 4 billion that can be supplied as new equipment to Ukraine and other countries. That is, not only Ukraine.

This means that out of these 19, Ukraine can receive a maximum of 10. And where do the rest go? We are not talking about 40. The maximum figure that Ukraine can receive in the form of weapons is 10 billion, of which 700 (million) have already been sent.

And where did the rest go?

3.9 billion is spent on the redeployment of American soldiers in Eastern Europe - 10.5 thousand soldiers will be transferred to Eastern Europe. They need to equip barracks, somewhere to live. Here is the amount allocated for their transportation.

350 million went to help refugees, of course.

4.3 billion to help Africa, due to the fact that Ukraine will stop sending food there. This is money that has nothing to do with Ukraine. It is American farmers who will send $4.3 billion worth of corn and grain to Africa.

8.8 billion will be allocated to Ukraine as economic support.

900 million - as humanitarian aid.

400 million allocated for investigations of crimes against humanity and other judicial actions.

190 million for diplomats.

650 million for international organizations.

In total, in the bottom line, it must be clearly understood that this entire 40 billion bill provides for real weapons for Ukraine in the amount of no more than 10 billion.

And it depends on what part of these weapons will go not to Ukraine, but to other countries.”