Ivan Zubov
The resignation of the most colorful Prime Minister of England since the time of Winston Churchill has become the most discussed international event of recent days, after, of course, the Ukrainian ones. However, the paradox is that it will not change anything in the country's foreign policy and will have little effect on domestic policy for the simple reason that Great Britain is the brightest example of democracy, in which absolutely nothing depends on the personality of one person. If there are any changes, then purely stylistic, made in such a bright and unusual manner, as happened under Johnson. British publicist and analyst Natasha Nesbitt commented in detail and wittily on the resignation of Boris Johnson and analyzed the merits and demerits of all his likely successors as prime minister:
“Johnsonyuk left us. Not really, because he will remain prime minister until about the fall - but in general, yes, things are bad, and the BBC already has Larry the cat, which is a sign of a political crisis.
Why?
This is the wrong question. Correct - and how did he manage to remain PM for so long.
I understand that the majority look at Boriska from the outside and are even quite satisfied with him, because our Don Rebbe is an eagle in the international arena. But in his nest, he crap all the straw.
The main cause of problems is the extreme, or even prohibitive, promiscuity in people and situations.
For the last two years, approximately since he got out of covid, Boris has had endless problems with the staff. Conspiracy lovers, go graze your reptilian somewhere else. Boris's problems are Boris's problems. He creates them for himself.
First, he had an adviser who was caught violating covid rules. All right, get rid of the adviser. But Boris first said yes, then no, then yes, then he changed his testimony 6 more times. As a result, he got rid of the adviser, but not before turning the latter into his mortal enemy.
The adviser, fortunately, he has many connections, began to scribble, and not in such a way that slander and denunciations, but simply what was not in the public space - all sorts of petty, but smelly and sticky crap.
The most unpleasant, of course, was PartyGate. Exactly in the middle of the second lockdown, in the winter of 2020, when the whole country was under lock and key, government officials close to Boris decided to hold a series of fun parties - and Boris did not find anything better than to show up at them.
Those. on the one hand, the government closes everything with a barn lock, because we have covid and people are dying, and sends the police to violators of the regime, and on the other hand, it drinks champagne, has fun and has fun.
And no, you don't need anyone's plan. To get into it, you just need to not understand at all. Well, you don't have a brain at all.
The reaction to all these accusations was also ... well, I don't know. Maybe Boris specifically found himself PR advisers somewhere in the forests of the Amazon, so that they would not know with a guarantee how it works on the Island. But does he have to have a brain? He must also understand that if you have a booze for 100 people, then one of them will somehow blurt out, merge (they still photographed and filmed themselves there), that this will fall into the media and there will be a big, big scandal. It seems to me that even the forests of the Amazon should understand this.
But not Boris.
Okay, you got caught. So confess and apologize. Straightaway. Don't expect anything. Yes, I was guilty, the devil beguiled, sorry, good people.
But Boris began to get confused. It’s not me (you), I wasn’t there (was), I didn’t know anything (16 formal reports and emails proving that I knew). Didn't anyone tell him about limited damage?
And every time it seemed that the worst was over, some shit came out again.
The last straw was a certain character X (you don't need his name anyway, google it), who was caught groping men's asses. There are no problems with male priests, but with the fact that he pawed them without the consent of the copyright holders, the problem is huge.
And to hell with X, no one knew him before, but this X was responsible for discipline among the Conservative deputies. And to make it all right, Boris appointed him to this position already knowing that X likes to infringe trademark rights and after he got acquainted with the accusations.
So yes. You have to have a brain. It helps. Not having doesn't help.
People don't like this kind of entertainment at all. No, the hobbit loves that every boss sets an example of prosperity, and only strokes the seals, and asks the seals for consent. But we do not need crazy idiotic stories.
Purely British such a scandal turned out.
The day before yesterday, the most significant ministers of the Cabinet resigned, and Boris simply had no choice.
Now what?
Our political system, as usual, is complex and confusing.
Boris' resignation does not mean early elections. The prime minister is considered expendable. One left, another came.
In order for another to come, it is true that he must first be chosen. Therefore, for attentive readers, I once again explain that Boris has resigned as leader of the Conservatives, but so far remains the prime minister - and will remain so until the Tories elect someone else for themselves.
The selection process is tricky, and massive, although not popular - only registered and paying party members are eligible to vote.
But first you need to decide on the candidates.
Members of the party - MPs can nominate anyone, provided that at least 5% of them fit in for the candidate. Then the knockout races begin. In the next round, passing candidates must score at least 10%. This continues until there are only two candidates left. After that, their names are entered on the ballot and letters are sent to party members. They vote, votes are counted, and whoever wins becomes the new leader of the party, and then goes to Buckingham Palace and Her Majesty officially appoints the chosen one as Prime Minister.
Boris will remain in Parliament until he decides to leave - or is recalled by his voters. We have single-member districts and nothing else, and only the voters in the district have the right to decide.
Nobody is stopping him from returning to his post. This rarely happens - but yes, it happens, for example, in the case of Churchill.
But even if Boriska swallows his pride and goes to the Parliament just to sit, and does not quit and disappear from public life, then it will be a very, very long time before he returns to his own circle.
What, strictly speaking, does Boriska's departure affect?
For a little. If you are not on the Island, there will be a new person, obviously with less colorful turns - but in general, there is not much difference.
Inside, there will probably be some softening of the stance on the EU and migration, although this is highly dependent on who replaces him.
Because of our extremely complex system, when it is not even clear who is nominated, it is now very difficult to predict the name of the new prime minister.
Possible candidates are Rashi Sunak, Ben Wallace, Liz Tras, Penny Mordant. Michael Gov, Dominic Raab and Jeremy Hunt. It is possible that none of them, of course, but in such a way as to represent who we are dealing with.
Rashi Sunak until recently was the Chancellor, he is also the Minister of Finance with expanded powers, the second person in the Cabinet.
A pleasant Hindu youth with a gentle public manner. He irritated few people in the role of Chancellor, and people rather liked him, because he gave out money generously. From a breed of very centrist right, which does not differ from the left even upon close examination. At the beginning of the war, he got into a scandal with his wife and part-time daughter of a Hindu billionaire. The wife did not pay taxes - on legal, but not entirely ethical grounds. The father-in-law, who, if memory serves, Infosys, did not leave Russia as a business. The story with the father-in-law was hushed up, the wife quickly agreed to pay taxes here, but yes, a certain smell remained.
Like most conservative voters, I have nothing against Rashi and am ready to trust him with a public wallet. But for PM, he is somehow too sluggish.
Ben Wallace is Secretary of Defense. He's got the People's Choice Award so far, and he's the most popular electoral candidate. They say that the Kremlin looks at what is happening with bated breath. Well, don't breathe yet. If Moscow didn't like Boris, she won't like Ben even more. He hates Putin, in every possible way supports any, including direct and military, assistance to Ukraine. The face is round and the jerboa is cheerful.
The problem is that apart from the fact that we do not know anything about him. He was secretary of defense and for the Tridents, but what he thinks about pensions and benefits, and how he is able to get through the winter crisis is a big question.
Liz Truss is a cheerful girl, Minister of Foreign Affairs. Like Wallas, from the point of view of international relations, who didn’t like Johnsonyuk there, you just didn’t hear Thras.
Aggressive and energetic lady, in short. Not sure how it is with everything else. A very, very evil Brexiter, a sovereignist squared. It will be supported by the radicals, but it is not clear whether their support will be enough.
By the way, she is quite competent in international affairs, although she was laughed at because of a couple of stupid mistakes. Economic views are unknown.
Penny Mordaunt is a very pretty girl. By the way, she also visited the Minister of Defense. Cheerful and pleasing to the eye. Somehow got the favorites of the audience sympathy. Until she switched to defense, she was in show business, including the role of a magician's assistant.
We need such people, but, it seems to me, until her time to enter the arena has come.
Michael Gove . Smart as a whole volume of the Talmud. Chief strategist and blacksmith of conservative political happiness. Pope Brexit. Grey Cardinal. There is always and everywhere, but always a few in the second row.
Of all the possible candidates, this one is perhaps the most capable. He clearly has a brain - and he clearly knows how to use it.
But he has a reputation for being slippery. He's too smart, if you like. Yes, and he himself prefers to sit in the shade, and only moves his tentacles.
Gov is an old and distinguished member of the Conservative Party. He will definitely appear on the list and win at least two rounds. But the third and postal voting is unlikely. He's not that bad with publicity, but he doesn't have a stage persona, and it will be difficult to go to the general elections with him. It’s better for everyone if he sits in the shade and steers everyone from there.
Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt and more. personnel ministers. Moderately quick-witted and not disgusting, and therefore always in the Cabinet. True, no one remembers which of them is where. Either education, or healthcare, or justice. They are always thrown from place to place. They are walking.
They (there are several of them, and Javid is the same) are moderately good guys. Pretty harmless. They won't do bad things. But they don't excite. Each of them can even win if it comes to the postal ballot and is against a strange candidate like Penny or, God forbid, Preti Patel. But they themselves are nothing, only the hope that they will obey Gov, because they are good, obedient boys. None of them love Putin, and will not cooperate with him in any way, because they are correct and lapsists, but one cannot expect entertainment with them.
Priti Patel , Home Office, kind of like the Home Office. The young lady is very active, but if she goes beyond the second round, then I solemnly promise to vote next time for the Laborites or lib-dems. This is God forbid young lady. She has a nasty political reputation and is considered toxic. Too vicious. No need.
If it is necessary to make bets, then Sunak and someone from the trinity of Wallas, Thras and kibalchish boys go to the postal vote, because they are interchangeable. But which of them wins in the mail is unpredictable in principle. Sunak will make kibalchish but can lose against Wallas or Thras.
To be honest, I would like to see Wallas as the next PM, provided that Sunak will deal with the money, the kibalchish will remain in place, and Gova will be sent to the party discipline and strategy. Javis is on Home, he's Pakistani and from the working outskirts, so you need credibility. Thras scares me a little with her too aggressive anti-Europeanism, although she is credited as the Minister of Foreign Relations. But this is my ideal composition of the Cabinet, and there can be any adventures along the way.
What can be said for sure is that no elections will change foreign policy. On this occasion, no one criticized Boris, he lost his post solely due to internal sloppiness, and the next one will simply continue the work, although maybe less colorful. If there is Sunak, then the relationship will be a little more diplomatic, if Thras or Wallas, then even less, if you can imagine it.
By the way, it is possible, although unlikely, that Boriska will be returned to the Cabinet (especially if Thras wins) either to deal with Brexit or foreign policy. They may not return immediately, so as not to annoy the population, but it depends.
In general, you don't need to worry too much. Elections are quite innocent entertainment, better stock up on popcorn..."