Estonia will not be able to block the Gulf of Finland with its missiles

Alexander Sychev

Novye Izvestia has already analyzed the loud statement of Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkura that his country intends to agree with Finland on the integration of coastal missile defense systems of the two countries, thus blocking the exit from the Gulf of Finland for the Russian Baltic Fleet. That is, according to the politicians of the Baltic states, "The Baltic Sea will become an inland sea of NATO." It is impossible to carry out this practically without declaring war on Russia, our publication concluded.

Military analyst Alexander Sychev agrees with this verdict, who recalled that the legal regime of the Baltic Sea is regulated by a number of international acts, and above all, by the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, to which, among others, all countries of the Baltic region are parties . This act clearly defines the scope of jurisdiction of the states and their powers in certain areas of the Baltic water space.

But even from a military point of view, the idea is unpromising, Sychev is sure:

“For this, it is enough to take a closer look at the weapons with which they are going to block the bay.

Last fall, Estonia signed a contract with the Israeli-Singaporean company Proteus Advanced Systems for several divisions of Blue Spear coastal anti-ship systems. The exact number is kept secret, but in Tallinn they assure that they will be able to cover the entire Estonian coast.

Blue Spear is a modification of the old Israeli Gabriel Mk5 system with all the resulting tactical and technical features. A more advanced inertial navigation system was installed on the updated version, the fuel tank was increased, which made it possible to increase the range from 200 kilometers for Gabriel to about 300.

Of course, this range is more than enough to block the bay even without the participation of Finland, which in the narrowest place between the two countries reaches 52 kilometers, and in the widest - 120. Moreover, the Blue Spear is able to reach even the berthing infrastructure of the port complex St. Petersburg. A feature of the latest modification of the Blue Spear rocket is the ability to see and aim at ground-based radio-contrast objects and fly in the terrain envelope mode.

But the Blue Spear has an old SOREK-4 turbojet bypass engine, which provides it with a flight speed of no more than 970 kilometers per hour. In addition, the body has a radar signature bright enough for a four-meter rocket, which, in particular, is facilitated by a decent air intake from below and some other structural details.

All this makes the Blue Spear an easy target for modern Russian missile defense systems and even some of the old ones, which can not only see them a few minutes after launch, but also shoot them down in advance.

The Finnish version of the Swedish Saab RBS 15SF-III (Mk. II) anti-ship system is even slower. Their speed is about 800 kilometers per hour, and the range is just over 100 kilometers. In the Mk. III, which have been produced since 2004, Swedish missiles, like Israeli ones, are capable of striking ground targets. The Finns have installed them on Hamina and Rauma-class missile boats, and are also launching them from Sisu trucks in a mobile coastal defense variant.

But all these technical and tactical researches have no practical meaning in peacetime. Our ships have both sailed in the Baltic and will continue to do so, despite the interaction of the Estonian and Finnish coastal systems. It is unlikely that these two countries will risk destroying international maritime law. And if they try, it will mean a declaration of war.

The Balts, of course, have reached certain heights in their recklessness, but more reasonable statesmen in big countries stand above them. No one will pull the trigger. More expensive for yourself".