The share of overdue loans of Russians is growing at a record pace

Ekaterina Maksimova

The National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI) told Novye Izvestiya that as of August 1, the volume of retail loans from Russian banks amounted to 25.824 trillion rubles, which is 1.0% more than a month earlier. And at the beginning of June, we recall, the Russians owed banks 25.478 trillion rubles.

According to NBKI data provided by NI, an increase in the share of overdue debt (more than 90 days) was recorded in almost all lending segments.

Thus, as of August 1, arrears on consumer loans amounted to 14.5% (13.2% as of the beginning of the year), on car loans 5.0% (was 4.5%), on credit cards - 9.3% (was 8 ,one%). The delay remains stable only on mortgage loans - 0.5%.

NBKI Marketing Director Alexey Volkov explained the growth of overdue debts by the so-called "mathematical effect". In other words, this happens because the issuance of new loans is significantly reduced, and the old "good" loans are amortized, slightly increasing the share of "bad" loans. According to NBKI experts, for unsecured loans, and these are credit cards and consumer lending, a slight increase in the share of overdue debt is recorded in almost all regions of Russia.

“As for secured types of retail loans (car loans and mortgages), here the situation with delinquency since the beginning of the year is even more stable and there is no significant dynamics of its growth. We do not observe it in individual regions. level,” Alexey Volkov summed up.

After the spring recession, when the increased key rate practically paralyzed the credit market, Russian borrowers again reached out to banks in the summer.

Mortgage revived

According to the latest data from the Central Bank, in July, citizens issued almost 91.6 thousand mortgage loans. The growth compared to June amounted to almost 40%. The volume of transactions exceeded 341 billion rubles.

During the reporting period (from January to July), 636,000 mortgage loans were issued in the amount of 2.2 trillion rubles. In total, 12.7 trillion rubles are now "hanging" on mortgage holders.

Consumer loans

In this segment, the former boom is still far away, but the dynamics are noticeable. The NBKI notes that after the March failure, the number of consumer loans issued is growing for the fourth month in a row (+12.6% compared to previous months).

For seven months of 2022, the Russians took consumer loans in the amount of 1.35 trillion rubles . This is -46% compared to the same period in 2021, when borrowers took 2.53 trillion rubles from banks.

In June alone, 900 thousand consumer loans were issued, and in July already 1.01 million. " At the same time, compared to the same period last year, the number of consumer loans, on the contrary, decreased by 28.6% (in July 2021 - 1, 41 million units), and compared with the “pre-sanction” February - by 11.2% (in February 2022 - 1.14 million units)," the NBKI noted.

Auto loans

According to NBKI statistics, car loans fell by 40.9%. For seven months, future car owners borrowed 375.1 billion rubles from banks (January-July 2021 - 634.7 billion rubles ).

In the 30 leading regions, the rates of car loans decreased most noticeably in Moscow (-48.7%) and St. Petersburg (-45.2%), as well as in the Sverdlovsk, Samara, Chelyabinsk, and Nizhny Novgorod regions. That is, in regions with the highest concentration of auto dealerships.

"Compared to last year, the drop in issuance in this segment is very significant, and is explained not only by the growth of market rates in March-April, but also by the general shortage of new cars," the National Bureau of Credit Histories noted.

Economic experts believe that by the end of the year, many Russians will experience a decline in real incomes. According to Abel Aganbegyan, Doctor of Economics , the real incomes of Russians decreased by about 10% in 2014-2019. In 2020, due to the pandemic, they decreased by another 3.5%. But in 2021, the level of real income was 1% higher than the level of 2019. But in 2022, real incomes will decrease by another 10%. As a result, they will be 20% below the level of 2012 and 2013. Accordingly, the final consumption of households will also decrease significantly.