Borrowing up until the salary: citizens of the country are getting deeper and deeper into debt

Market statistics allow us to draw conclusions about the growth of the debt burden, which is fraught with social consequences, experts of the Nezygar analytical channel believe.

After an 8% decrease in the volume of loans issued in the first quarter, a decrease of 3% was again recorded in the second quarter and microcredits were issued in the amount of 170 billion rubles. Despite the decline in lending volumes, the portfolio for the second quarter remained virtually unchanged and amounted to 345 billion rubles, which indicates that overdue debt is growing.

Characteristically, as in the market of consumer loans, monthly growth has been observed in the microcredit market since May – +6% in May, +10% in June, and +27% in July.

Growth occurs due to the issuance of microcredits in a more risky segment with an increased interest rate of 0.8-1% per day, the share of such loans in the total volume of loans issued exceeded 70%. In addition to the growth in the volume of expensive loans, the debt burden of the borrower is growing (the ratio of the average monthly payments on all loans and borrowings to the average monthly income), in the second quarter, 55% of loans were issued with PTI over 80%, which is 3 points more than in the previous quarter.

Due to the increase in PTI, the share of overdue debts is growing: in the second quarter, the share of overdue debts over 90 days increased to 34.6% (by 3.2 points), which is higher than during the 2020 pandemic (then the maximum share of overdue debts was 32%). The increase in overdue debt is observed despite the fact that MFIs are actively selling it through assignment agreements - sales volumes increased by almost 50% compared to last year.

At the same time, the larger the MFI, the easier it is for them to compensate for losses with turnover and remain profitable, the share of unprofitable ones grows with a decrease in the volume of the portfolio: the share of profitable is almost 90%, then among MFIs with a portfolio of up to 10 million rubles. share of profitable only 40%.

Changes in the structure of debt occur, among other things, due to changes in lending segments. A significant reduction in volumes occurs in the POS segment (express consumer credit for the purchase of a specific product, usually repaid within a few months): -32% in the first quarter, -37% in the second quarter. Growth is taking place in the PDL (Payday Loan) segment, with online loans accounting for the bulk of new loans.

Experts believe that the austerity regime in which, according to many observations, Russians have been in the last few months, is also reflected in the microloan market. POS loans are a classic example of impulse buying in consumer behavior, which is why this segment is shrinking dramatically. At the same time, falling living standards due to both hidden partial unemployment and higher prices for basic products, together with the formal ease of applying for PDL loans online, lead to their growth. As a result, the standard of living of borrowers falls even more rapidly. The way out of this situation can be measures of social incentives for the poor and legislative restrictions on the activities of MFIs in terms of interest rates and the maximum PIT of the borrower.