Labor market in autumn: only the public sector will be stable

Yekaterina Maksimova

It's time for employers. You have to play by their rules. According to hh.ru analytics, this year the number of vacancies decreased by 12%, and the number of resumes almost doubled - 21%.

The market crashed the most during the summer. "In the summer, the demand for employees continued to fall. Over the summer trimester, the number of offers decreased by 15%. The last time such a negative trend was observed at the start of the coronavirus crisis", - Anastasia Uskova, CEO of the Rocket Work HR platform, assessed.

August: temporary hiring surge

But the summer as a whole, recruitment representatives remind, is not indicative. For the labor market, this is a low season, which is traditionally accompanied by a decline in activity. At the same time, it was in August that employers “woke up”. And it was a short burst.

Alexander Ilyin , senior analyst at hh.ru research service , specified that over the last month of summer, the number of active vacancies increased by 6.1%, and the number of active resumes by 1.1%.

The portal Rabota.ru also recorded an increase in employer activity (+10%) and a slight decrease in the activity of job seekers (-6%) in August.

Director of Analytics and Data Science Rabota.ru Yelena Artemyeva explained the reason for the temporary imbalance: "August is traditionally a low season in the labor market in terms of applicant activity: many spend time on vacation and do not deal with employment issues. On the part of employers, by the end of summer - the beginning In autumn, certain seasonal changes can also be noted.Demand for applicants in the field of education increases, as the number of requests from parents of schoolchildren increases before school.Also traditionally, by this period, due to the return of most people from vacation, the demand for goods and services increases - in trade and the service sector, employers are beginning to actively seek candidates.

I'll flip the calendar...

From the first days of autumn, as always, the labor market comes to life. "In September, the activity of applicants, as a rule, increases by about 15-20%. Applicants are more likely to be interested in vacancies and respond more often," Elena Artemyeva added.

It would just be something to respond to. Anastasia Uskova considers the August bursts to be insignificant and specifies that by the very end of the month the number of published vacancies increased by only 1%. And this despite the fact that autumn is traditionally a hot time for hiring. In Moscow and the region, the number of active vacancies at the start of autumn increased by 0.6%, in St. Petersburg - by 1.1%. "In annual terms, in the same Moscow - the flagship for hire, the level of competition has increased by 17%", - Anastasia Uskova, a representative of the Rocket Work platform, estimated.

And she, as an expert, has bad news for Russians who want to find or change jobs. In autumn, the labor market will finally turn into an employer's market.

Anastasia Uskova believes that some companies that took a wait-and-see attitude in the summer did not have time to adapt to the crisis and sanctions. “And with a high probability, such companies will begin to cut costs by laying off staff. The term for the suspension of the activities of many foreign companies is also approaching, and then in most cases a complete closure and dismissal of people will follow. companies are becoming more demanding, job searches can take longer," Uskova predicts.

Applicants, the expert continues, will have to change their behavior and become more accommodating. "There will be fewer unreasonably high salaries and pleasant "goodies". But there may be more cases of hidden unemployment. In pursuit of cost optimization, companies will more actively resort to schemes for transferring to part-time work or sending staff to downtime," Anastasia Uskova believes.

SuperJob adds that most job seekers are already ready to take a pay cut in order to get a job. A recent poll of the service showed that only 38% of Russians refuse to lose part of their earnings in order to get a new job.

Who will be lucky and who will have to run

The August review of hh.ru reports that the labor market has formed a shortage of workers, specialists in the extraction of raw materials, builders, doctors and sales staff.

According to Rabota.ru, in recent days, employers have also been actively looking for employees in the field of trade (almost a quarter of all offers, 24%).

Enough vacancies are posted by companies representing such areas as manufacturing and agro-industry (16% of vacancies), transport/logistics, construction, and the service sector.

"Most often, employers in the field of trade were looking for sellers, cashiers and consultants. In the manufacturing and agricultural industries, locksmiths, assemblers and packers were the most in demand, and in the field of transport and logistics - drivers, order pickers and loaders", - Rabota.ru specified.

But according to the hh.ru review, when looking for a job, lawyers, students (the beginning of a career), administrative staff, personnel management specialists, as well as representatives of such areas as accounting / finance, science / education, insurance and top management. Employers "white collars" are not in favor now.

However, SuperJob analysts add that not all "office workers" should be afraid of unemployment. There is a high demand for engineers (construction / design, industrial production), managers and specialists from the fields of transport / logistics, procurement / supply. IT specialists (software developers, software implementation specialists, system administrators) are also those personnel that employers are chasing.

According to hh.ru, in August the Urals Federal District, the North-Western Federal District.

Unemployment… start

By the end of the summer, the Ministry of Economic Development updated its forecasts for the unemployment rate for 2022. The department believes that by December, unemployment will rise to 4.8% (to the level of 2021). The greatest pressure on the labor market, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, the Russians will feel at the end of this year. The peak will be at the beginning of 2023. And by the end of 2023, unemployment will reach 5.2%.

Recruitment specialists and economists came to similar conclusions back in the spring and predicted a noticeable increase in unemployment. However, Alexei Mironov, Vice President for Operations Management of ANCOR, noted that the highest degree of uncertainty with the geopolitical situation does not allow making accurate forecasts.

With the onset of autumn, optimism among specialists did not increase. In their opinion, the unemployment rate by the end of the year will rise from the official 3.9% to 6%. It will be difficult for all industries. Only the public sector will be a stable employer. Those who can work with their hands will not be left without work.

“It is clear that the situation on the labor market will not be uneven. So, with a high probability, people employed in retail, dependent on foreign supplies, will flood the labor market first of all. Other industries related to logistics and imports are also expected to contract, including - mechanical engineering. But where everything will be relatively calm - the state and public sector. As well as in companies that are somehow connected with the state. It is the state that will become one of the key employers in the current crisis", - said the CEO of the Rocket Work HR platform Anastasia Uskova.

She adds that by the end of the year it is reasonable to expect unemployment to rise. “However, growth is to be achieved at record low rates (3.9% in August), as well as in the context of the recent labor shortage. This will buffer the autumn staffing and will not lead to a significant increase in unemployment”, - concluded Anastasia Uskova.