A month later, at all fuel stations: "winter" diesel in Russia can get more expensive?

Yekaterina Maksimova, Irina Mishina

President of the Russian Fuel Union (RFU) Yevgenia Arkusha the day before said that in Russia there may be a shortage of winter frost-resistant diesel. The head of the RTS explained his alarming forecast by the fact that fuel producers - oil companies - began to export winter diesel in large volumes. What was not there before. But that's not all: stock prices have already gone berserk due to fuel shortages.

Information about a sharp rise in the price of frost-resistant fuel "NI" was confirmed by several market participants at once. Last week alone, the exchange price of winter diesel fuel (hereinafter - fuel station) increased by 3-5 thousand rubles per ton. To date, in some regions of the Russian Federation, the purchase price for diesel has already risen to 63-65 thousand rubles per ton. Usually the difference between purchase and retail was 2-2.5 rubles, but now it has increased dramatically.

“Today, the difference in exchange prices between summer and winter diesel fuel has developed in the range of 10 rubles per liter. This was not the case even in the troubled years of 2018-2019. These are the highest prices. All this will lead to the fact that the prices at private filling stations will be much higher than those of oil companies, or they will simply wind up the hoses”, - explained Yuri Matveiko, head of the Altay Fuel Union.

In his opinion, oil companies that are actively exporting fuel station should now treat the situation with understanding. And their primary task is to meet the needs of the domestic market, increase sales on the stock exchange, and only then export the product. Otherwise, a very serious increase in retail prices for diesel fuel is ahead. And this is not only ordinary motorists, but also a huge range of operational, utility and other services that are responsible for the life of the regions.

Yevgeny Arkusha, President of the Russian Fuel Union, in an interview with an NI correspondent, explained the position of the RTS: “We are concerned about the possibility, I emphasize the possibility, of a shortage of frost-resistant varieties of winter diesel in winter. This is due to the fact that those volumes that were previously used for replacement, they left the market. Previously, the so-called middle distillates helped, but now they are practically absent on the domestic market - they are all exported. At the same time, the production of directly winter diesel increased”.

The head of the RTS believes that the situation can be corrected. What needs to be done for this, he explained in an interview with the correspondent of "NI".

- If fuel station is already purchased in bulk at a price of 65,000 rubles per ton, does this mean that diesel fuel at filling stations will be guaranteed to cost at least 65 rubles per liter in winter?

-Now only the beginning of the procurement process. And the growth of stock prices is not yet indicative. Since last week, about ten days ago, they just started selling winter varieties. Indeed, the exchange price is currently higher, but today, I emphasize, this does not guarantee an increase in the retail price in such volumes.

- That is, there is hope that by the onset of winter the difference between wholesale and retail can reach the usual 2-3 rubles, and not 10 rubles?

- Well, I hope, I hope.

- What needs to be done urgently for this?

- It is necessary to close the export of winter diesel and resolve the issue of fuel supplies from Belarus. I think this will help.

- Mass production of winter fuel traditionally begins in October. This month, will the outline of future winter prices become clear?

- Already now there is an accumulation and stocks are made. Many from September begin to stock up on frost-resistant varieties of diesel. Therefore, we are now warning that a situation such as a shortage of winter fuel may arise. And we are talking about the need for some preventive action. What exactly - said above.

I will add that we have practically never exported winter diesel before. It was not an export-oriented product. Now its producers sell it outside of Russia, because it has become very profitable. And of course, the export must be closed.

- And if the oil companies ignore the situation, how much should the import of Belarusian fuel to Russia increase?

-I can't be more specific. In the volumes that are needed, I would say so. They get oil from us and they refine it. Belarus has always supplied us with fuel when it was beneficial for it. This means that it is necessary to make sure that it is profitable for them to supply winter fuel to Russia.

- Do you believe that in winter we will not see a 20% increase in prices for fuel station for the diesel fuel?

- Everything will be fine in the end. All decisions will be made. And across Belarus, and on export.

It's amazing, but in Russia no one knows for sure - what is the country's need for diesel fuel. Consumption was estimated by the level of production. This, according to the Ministry of Energy, is about 20 million tons of winter diesel per year. But probably a little more was consumed. Excessive consumption was covered precisely by middle distillates, which are now exported.

Pyotr Shkumatov, the coordinator of the Blue Bucket Society movement, head of the working group of the ONF “Protection of the rights of motorists”, also believes that it is too early to panic. He believes that with the onset of cold weather, there will still be no problems with diesel fuel in Russia, and an extraordinary scenario will most likely be avoided.

“Firstly, I believe that there should be no problems with winter diesel fuel, because the export of diesel fuel is regulated by the state. As much as the state has allowed diesel to be sold abroad, so much will be sold without creating a deficit in the domestic market. Secondly, winter diesel is not in great demand in the main importing countries, because there are no very low temperatures in winter. It is generally exported from Russia less than ordinary diesel fuel”, - Shkumatov believes.

He also suggested that if there are local deficits, they will be covered very quickly from the reserves for winter diesel fuel. “Besides, by regulating exports, the government can very quickly, literally in a week, saturate the Russian market with diesel fuel”, - Shkumatov summed up.

To the question of “NI” - why diesel prices have already begun to rise - the head of the working group of the All-Russians people front “Protection of the rights of motorists” answered this way: “This is a difficult question. Diesel fuel is not just diesel fuel. Diesel fuel now is, in fact, a complex petroleum product, to which there are a huge number of requirements, primarily environmental ones. It is very difficult to produce diesel fuel of an environmentally friendly 5th class. If we are talking about banal diesel fuel, it is much easier and cheaper to produce it. But eco-friendly class 5 diesel fuel is produced using a more complex technology than gasoline. This should not, of course, give a radical difference in prices. But nevertheless, diesel fuel of modern quality should a priori cost more than ordinary diesel fuel. We are already seeing this in the fuel market”.