Men are still in short supply: the first results of the population census are summed up

Sergey Baimukhametov

From the very beginning, there was more than a skeptical general attitude towards this campaign of an all-Russian scale. But the census is the most important socially useful and state event. Leo Tolstoy on January 20, 1882, in the newspaper Sovremennye Izvestia, assessed the so far local, only Moscow, census as follows: “The purpose of the census is scientific. The census is a sociological study. The goal of the science of sociology is the happiness of people ...The goal of any other science is only knowledge, but here the good of people.

As a volunteer, he personally saw city life up close: “In Moscow, you can’t walk the streets without meeting beggars, and especially beggars who don’t look like villagers.” And he called on all wealthy citizens to come to the aid of the inhabitants of the city's slums, orphans and the poor: "To eliminate the greatest evil of disunity between us and the poor".

The article caused a loud response in Moscow. “This is not an article, but the cry of a sore heart, which is ashamed that there is nothing to eat for the hungry, but he, the master, is in luxury. Here it was treated harshly, many mockingly, but most sympathetically, although, of course, as a utopia,” wrote literary critic and publisher Semyon Vengerov.

And the first general census of the population of the Russian Empire was carried out only in 1897. The officially declared goal: "To compose accurate concepts about the most diverse conditions of popular life." And now it is the only reliable source on the size and composition of the population of Russia at the end of the 19th century.

The principles and recommendations adopted by the United Nations state:

"The population and housing census plays a key role in public administration". (Emphasis mine - S.B.)

But our census, conducted from October 15 to November 14, 2021, has nothing to do with this most important task, not to mention “the happiness and welfare of people.” Everyone remembers the farcical rush report of 99% population coverage. Although all around there was only talk that no one came to them, did not ask about anything.

Already in December, an authoritative sociological service cited the results of a survey: 42% of Russians did not take part in the census, and 73% in Moscow.

So, the results are “drawn".

Where did they get data on family income, the size of the plot, the availability of running water, sewerage, heating, and so on? "From the ceiling". That is, in local passport offices, in the materials of past censuses, or even in the most literal sense - in painful reflections while contemplating the ceiling.

But why?

For example, it is understandable why, according to the new accounting rules, in 2021 the number of people living below the poverty line “reduced” by 2.8 million at once, to 16 million. The authorities have set a goal - to reduce the level of poverty by 2 times by 2024. That's "reduced". Ordinary swindle.

But during the population census, it seems that no specific fraudulent tasks were set. Consequently, we have an ordinary disregard for the performance of duties. In addition to the "development" of 32 billion, of course.

Among the people, instead of the complex word "fraud" they use the concept of "bullshit", which has come into use since the Gulag times. That is, not work, but visibility, but fully paid at all levels - from prison rations to the ranks and titles of the camp authorities. And now, relying on this "bullshit", journalists will start writing thoughtful articles about our life? Scientists - to analyze, comprehend "bullshit" and give recommendations to the government, and the government - to make decisions?

And what happens? You cannot manage what you have no idea about or have erroneous information about. Therefore, the government should regard the census as a diversion against the system of public administration.

Or the state doesn't care, let it roll as it rolls. He is so good...

Let's see the first final results.

As a preliminary reminder: according to the 2002 census, the permanent population of Russia was 145.2 million people. According to the 2010 census - 142.9 million.

That is, in eight years it has decreased by 2.3 million.

But in the interval between 2010 and 2021, it increased sharply. Now the permanent population of Russia is 147,182,123 people. (https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/56580)

Let's take into account that the population of Crimea has been added to us - 2.4 million. But even taking it into account, there seems to be an increase of 2 million. But - like.

Because simultaneously with the ongoing census, the same Rosstat in a special Bulletin announced: the number of permanent population of the Russian Federation as of January 1 of this year is 145,557,576 people. (https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Bul_chislen_nasel-pv_01-01-2022.pdf)

The difference with the results of the census is 1.6 million.

Moreover, the preface of Rosstat says: “Hereinafter, the population estimate is given without taking into account the results of the All-Russian population census conducted as of October 1, 2021”.

That is, one hand of Rosstat thought so, the other - that way and even razetak. And, at the same time.

In total, it turns out that in 20 years our population has disappeared. And if we subtract the Crimean addition, then compared to 2002 there is a decrease of 2.5 million.

One value remains constant - the difference between the number of men and women.

In 2010, women outnumbered men by 10.8 million.

As of January 1, 2022, both according to the census data and according to separate calculations by Rosstat, the gap is still the same - 10.5 million.

The elders remember the popular song of the 1960s:

Today is a holiday for the girls:

There will be dancing today!

And the girls' cheeks are on fire

In the morning they burn with a blush.

The girls came

Standing on the sidelines

Teasing the Handkerchiefs in the hands.

Because for ten girls

According to statistics, there is nine guys.

Yes, based on statistics. Only not nine guys, but eight. The demographic consequences of the loss of men during the Second World War.

According to the 1959 census, there were 20.7 million more women than men in the USSR.

There are no data for republics. Based on the general proportion of the population (in total in the USSR - 208.8 million, in the RSFSR - 117.5 million), calculated data are arithmetically determined: in 1959 there were 11.6 million more women than men in Russia.

Since then, this gap has persisted. That is, men are “deficit”. Maybe that's why they are so proud and forgetful? Including the lack of memory even of formal fatherly duties. To date, alimony debt has reached 156 billion rubles.

In 2002, there were 2.5 million single mothers in Russia. According to the 2010 census - 3 million. And then ... In 2017, according to the Commissioner for Children's Rights Anna Kuznetsova - already 5 million.

What will the results of the 2021 census show?