The Central Bank does not exclude the return of the crisis of the scale of 2007-2008

Ekaterina Maksimova

The regulator presented this document in early August. Almost two months later, the Central Bank still does not rule out three scenarios for the adaptation of the Russian economy: basic, accelerated adaptation and the global crisis.

If earlier the Central Bank predicted that under the baseline scenario, annual inflation in 2022 would be 12-15%, then in the new document the regulator improved its forecast to 11-13%. The inflation expectations of the Central Bank for the next years remained the same: 5-7% in 2023, 4% in 2024 and 2025. The key rate this year, the Central Bank, as expected, no longer intends to reduce. The previously announced forecast for 2023 has not changed: the key rate is expected to be at the level of 6.5% - 8.5% in 2023, 6.0 - 7.0% in 2024 and 5.0 - 6.0% in 2025 .

"According to the baseline scenario, in 2022 and during most of 2023 the Russian economy will shrink, adjusting to changed external conditions. In 2025, the economy will return to a potential growth rate of 1.5-2.5%," the ministry believes. Elvira Nabiullina.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation did not correct the "adaptation" scenario and believes that the growth of the Russian economy will begin as early as 2023. And in 2024-2025, annual inflation will remain close to 4% with the key rate being in the neutral range of 5.0-6.0% per annum.

The worst option - a global crisis - suggests an economic collapse comparable in scale to 2007-2008.

"For the Russian economy, the implementation of the global crisis, which reduces external demand, along with the deterioration of the geopolitical background, which reduces prices and export volumes, will significantly complicate structural adjustment and adaptation to new conditions. GDP in 2023 will decline more than in 2022. In 2024, the fall will continue, and only in 2025 a slight increase is possible - about 1%, "explains the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, completely repeating its previous forecast.

When forecast figures appeared in August, Evgeny Suvorov , an economist at CentroCredit Bank, called the Central Bank's scenarios "horror-horror."

"Judging by the description, the Central Bank is modeling the global crisis according to the 2008 scenario, but in the context of increasing geopolitical risks. This leads to increased fragmentation of the world economy and "maintaining an increased degree of severity of restrictions on Russian exports." For our economy, such a scenario is horror, horror "GDP has been declining for three years in a row (2022-2024), and next year there is an acceleration of the collapse. In 2024, the size of our economy will be 11-17% smaller than it was a year earlier," Suvorov estimated.