Falling sales and the risk of bankruptcies. How the real estate market reacted to the mobilization

People in conditions of increased nebula do not risk entering into transactions. There is an oversupply of apartments in Moscow.

Yulia Suntsova, Natalya Seybil

According to the Best-Novostroy company, the number of requests for the purchase of apartments and apartments in the week after the announcement of mobilization (from September 21 to October 4) almost doubled compared to the same period in 2021 - by 46%. The data for other firms is a little more optimistic: in the Rodina Group the fall was estimated at 30-40%, in the MIC Group - by 30%, in the A101 Group - by 10%, but on some days by 30%.

In fact, the demand for new buildings in Moscow and large cities was supported almost exclusively by the auction method. Market rates are not of interest to most customers in this segment. The sales driver in recent years has been preferential state programs and subsidizing the rates of developers.

The policy of subsidizing, however, now has questions from the financial regulator. The head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said that "marketing" near-zero rates should be canceled, as they mislead borrowers. From December 1, the Central Bank is going to tighten mortgage lending programs for new buildings with a rate of less than 10% and minimal initial contributions. As a result, mortgages may become less affordable.

The current recession is unique: traditionally, in the fall, the demand for home purchases increases after a summer lull. With the decline in sales observed in September, the real estate market has encountered for the first time, says Anna Telegina, head of the sales department of the Novaya Shcherbinka residential complex.

At the same time, from January to September 2022, Moscow approved the construction of 19.6 million sq.m.

An excess of new square meters, with a parallel decrease in purchasing power, could provoke a build-up in the construction industry for several years, and this is a significant economic sector of the capital.

What awaits the real estate and construction market in the coming months? About this "NI" speculated together with the experts.

Entrepreneur, head of the Group of companies for the sale and lease of real estate "Ecooffice" Andrey Kovalev:

- The real estate market in the coming months expects stagnation, falling prices. You need to understand that when prices here are gradually rising, people try to get loans quickly and buy quickly, because they understand that in a month or two they will have to buy more expensive. Now, when prices are falling on the housing market, everyone thinks: “Why buy / rent now, I’ll wait until those who urgently left and mobilized leave and give it cheaper than the market.”

Sales. In Moscow, in some super-successful projects, sales are going on, but in general, for developers, the decline is by 30-50%. The number of calls has already halved, developers are going for hidden discounts: 20% percent can already be negotiated. In the Moscow region, sales are close to zero.

Construction. New projects are already frozen. Developers only complete what is already being completed. Projects built or sold by 40% right now decide what to do next. It is scary to use credit in the absence of sales and, thereby, increase your yoke. No matter how bankruptcy starts.

The risk of freezing and long-term construction is, of course, increasing. I think that all projects, both small and large, will be put on hold again, we will again wait to see how the situation develops further. In a similar period in 2008-2009. 90% of construction projects went bankrupt or changed owners.

General Director of the real estate agency "Mayak" Julia Bituse:

- There is no surplus of square meters yet, but the supply exceeds demand ten times. A person with an approved loan or cash now has a huge choice, and it will only increase. Now only the beginning of October, by the beginning of December the market will be overstocked. Many people who left the country in March, July, September ... yes, since the end of February have been continuously leaving, so these people have been busy all this time issuing powers of attorney to sell their property (and before paying and closing their mortgages), for everything these indirect operations took time. Consular sections abroad are overcrowded. Already in July, the windows remained only for November. As soon as these procedures are completed, trustees will put this property up for sale. By December, I think, the canopy of apartments will become even larger.

Transactions are concluded only if the seller makes a discount of 15% - 30%. For example, an apartment is put up for 30 million, and if in the end they offer 22 million for it, then the deal is made, no - no. The apartment is put up for 15 million, they offer 11 million for it, then a deal is made ...

As soon as people say they are not ready to bargain or agree to lower the price by 200 thousand, as was the case in good times a year or two ago, the transaction does not occur. Buyers now have a huge choice, and it can require a very large bargain. Naturally, people are not told about it. You will not see this either in CYAN or on other resources. There are no real transaction prices. I request information from the directors of active agencies. Everyone is ready for discounts of 20% - 30%.

Denis Leushin, General Director of Pleada Real Estate Bureau:

- Developers, I think, will soon try to resort to well-forgotten old unique offers: installments 10-30-30-30, when the client first pays 10% of the cost, then the remaining 3 years pays 30% of the remaining amount and thus is exempt from monthly payments. Or a mortgage with low interest rates for the period of building a house. Perhaps this will help someone to wait out a difficult period.

In the secondary real estate market - recession. Approximate statistics - minus 30% for both the sale of the secondary and the purchase. Most sellers and potential buyers are on pause. At the same time, even the fall in mortgage rates on the secondary housing at the moment does not stimulate buyers. Sellers who started the process of selling before the announcement of mobilization do not refuse transactions, but the number of applications for objects being sold has fallen sharply, by 30-40%. As a rule, October-December is the most active season for the sale of secondary real estate, it is possible that the increase will be from the beginning of November and by the end of December the statistics will return to their previous level.

Karina Romanova, head of the Elit-Expert real estate agency:

- Of course, in general, over the past two weeks, we have seen an outflow of customers, we associate this with mobilization: many families simply have no time to solve their housing issues. Banks are less likely to approve mortgages for men. Alive, more or less, the investor segment in the secondary market. These clients do not purchase real estate for personal use, but as a means of saving money. The Tuesday market in this sense seems to be the most reliable option. There are fears that companies selling new buildings may go bankrupt, close, and in the case of them, before receiving the keys, you invest not in an apartment, but in the company itself. On the secondary - a finished apartment, which will not get stuck anywhere and you don't have to worry.

Andrey Polyakov, head of the project "Construction of the Peri company":

- According to my assessment, we will observe an increase in the terms of construction and commissioning of objects in the primary market, this is due to a decrease in demand from buyers. At the same time, there is a risk of freezing objects and long-term construction, but it is not high, it is more likely that the delivery of housing will be delayed. But it is hardly worth expecting a fall in real estate prices in general, since the unsatisfied demand for housing in Russia is still quite high - the buyer is simply waiting for a quieter time to buy. Nevertheless, developers, too, most likely, will not give in, they will wait for a new wave of demand, which will compensate them for months of downtime and costs. The secondary market looks less promising so far, sales on it are falling, and stimulation is clearly required, in the near future it will stagnate, unless they launch lending programs for transactions in the secondary market. Moscow. The current surplus of square meters arose in the moment, it is difficult, of course, to say how long this moment will drag on, but, in my opinion, there will be no surplus, since pent-up demand is high.