Mother oil and Father gas in 2023 will significantly underfeed the Russian budget

This is almost the same as the federal budget provides for the maintenance of healthcare and education.

Yekaterina Maksimova

We walk on the last, Or metamorphoses of 2022

Despite the beginning of the NWO, sanctions, and a decrease in gas and oil supplies, Russia will receive windfall profits from oil and gas by the end of 2022.

Recall how the revenue base from oil and gas was formed by months: January 794.5 billion rubles, February 971.7 billion rubles, March 1.2 trillion rubles, April 1.7 trillion rubles, May 886 billion rubles. But since the summer, revenues have already begun to decline: June 717.9 billion rubles, July 770 billion rubles, August 671.9 billion rubles.

In total for 8 months: 7.8 trillion rubles (against 5.4 trillion for the same period in 2021).

In 2022, the oil and gas sector was supposed to bring 9.5 trillion to the treasury, but a fleeting boom (when European countries intensively bought our "black gold" for future use, and gas prices went up at a record high) will allow Russia to receive almost a trillion more by the end of 2022 (10, 4 trillion against almost 9 trillion in 2021).

Beginning of the End?

The Russian Cabinet expects that in 2023 the country will receive the usual 9 trillion rubles from oil and gas. Analysts doubt that Russia will keep the oil and gas bar. Forecasts are becoming more insistent that export earnings in 2023 may fall by 30-40 and even 50%.

There are plenty of factors for pessimistic forecasts. These include the near-zeroing of gas supplies to Europe, the EU embargo on the supply of oil and petroleum products from December 2022, the strengthening of the ruble, discussions on the introduction of a ceiling on oil prices, and the sale of Russian raw materials in Asian markets at a discount.

Several important statements for the future were made at the Russian Energy Week forum, but plans to overcome the crisis will not lay a straw on the federal treasury, which is almost half dependent on oil and gas exports.

Thus, the Russian authorities made a proposal to resume gas supplies to Europe through one line of Nord Stream 2, which survived the explosions. From the government of Germany, the answer "flew" at lightning speed: Germany excludes the launch of an undamaged line, even despite the tense situation with gas supply.

President Vladimir Putin also said that Moscow could redirect gas from Nord Stream to the Black Sea region and create Europe's largest gas hub in Turkey. Turkish Energy Minister Fatih Donmez also did not hesitate to respond: this is the first time he has heard about plans to create such a hub.

As for oil exports, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak never tires of repeating: Russia will stop supplying "black gold" to countries that will resort to non-market restrictions and set a ceiling on fuel prices.

Don't jump over your head

Director General of the Institute for Regional Problems Dmitry Zhuravlev recalls that the European market for Russian oil and gas was a key one and the turn towards Asia in general and China in particular is not compensated for.

"Gazprom, of course, promises to increase gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia, but this branch cannot double automatically. And the second line to China with the help of old Hottabych will not appear. These are only prospects so far. And even the Turkish hub of all will not solve problems: as much as Turkish Stream can supply, so much will be ( the capacity of Turkish Stream is 16 billion cubic meters of gas per year, which is almost three times lower than the capacity of Nord Stream, - ed .). In any case, we will receive oil and gas revenues, no matter what the West does, but their volume will definitely decrease," Dmitry Zhuravlev estimates.

Mikhail Shchapov , deputy from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes , believes that the treasury will receive less than 3 trillion rubles from oil and gas workers.

"The fact that oil and gas revenues would fall was clear at the end of spring. Sanctions limit sales markets for oil and gas companies, force them to sell products at a discount, reduce production. Serious problems will soon begin to arise with production equipment supplied and serviced by foreign companies," - explains the parliamentarian Shchapov.

A spoonful of honey in a barrel of tar, Dmitry Zhuravlev believes, was added only by the recent decision of OPEC + to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day. And against the background of this decision, world energy prices will rise sharply. Which, accordingly, will make it possible to keep export earnings from the oil industry to some extent.

Dmitry Zhuravlev believes that in 2023 Russia, which will have to compete for its oil and gas revenues, needs to stop dumping on Asian markets.

“We are always trying to dump and do not sell at market prices. We are afraid: they won’t buy from us otherwise. They will buy, they will buy perfectly at the market price, both China and India. If we don’t allow ourselves dumping, we will behave like normal traders , then it is quite possible that Russia will retain raw material revenues by raising prices," Dmitry Zhuravlev believes.

The federal budget-2023, we recall, has already been drawn up with a 3 trillion deficit. Next year's revenues are envisaged at 26 trillion rubles, the expenditure side - 29 trillion.

As Kommersant previously reported, revenues will also fall in relative terms - from 19% to 17.4% of GDP. The entire reduction will come from oil and gas revenues.

Let us explain what the lost three trillion means for the country. The budget for 2022 provides for spending on national defense in the amount of 3.5 trillion rubles. And, for example, annual spending on healthcare and education will total 2.4 trillion rubles (1.2 trillion for each of the blocks).