Ivan Zubov
On Saturday, October 16, 2022, a landmark event will begin in the political life of China - the 20th Party Congress. The decisions taken at the congress will determine the country's political and economic course for the next few years. And about a week later, when the congress ends, the updated composition of the highest governing bodies will be announced - the Politburo and its standing committee.
In addition, China is known to be the largest trade and strategic partner for Russia, so the decisions taken at the congress may affect our country as well.
It is interesting that in order to prevent smog in the air from overshadowing the bright holiday, up to 50% of the capacity of steel mills is suspended in Hebei province, neighboring Beijing.
The main question that haunts the minds of politicians and analysts around the world is whether President Xi Jinping will be able to be re-elected for a third term (until 2018 there was a rule limiting the term of the leader, but Xi made sure to abolish it in advance).
Political analyst Yaroslav Ignatovsky is sure that there can be no doubt about this: Xi will remain as the helmsman of the PRC, despite a number of problems (aggravation of the Taiwan issue, escalation of tensions in Sino-American relations, etc.).
The current Secretary General prematurely prepared fertile ground for his next ascension to the post: he managed to pacify the stormy intra-party competition and keep it on a short leash (it is known for certain that there is a split within the CPC into 2 competing factions: one led by Xi, the other with Jiang Zemin .
The fight against corruption in this case is only a facade of a real internecine war), enlist the support of associates with considerable political capital in the party, and take control of the armed forces (during the five years of Xi Jinping's rule, an avalanche-like personnel rotation took place, which swept away officials recruited by the previous administration , and erected to the vacant positions of the ruler's close associates: a number of members of the Politburo, the Central Committee, party leaders of the Chinese provinces, chairmen of ministries, etc.).
All this together guarantees the head of China serious support and, consequently, re-election.
Thinking backwards, we safely arrive at the same conclusion: if Xi were not sure of his ratings and political chances, he would not support the initiative to remove the term limit. But this is a significant norm for China, a kind of honored political tradition.
Analyst Yevgeny Kogan , for his part, is also confident that Xi Jinping will be re-elected for a third term. But in contrast to him, in relation to other representatives of the Politburo and its Standing Committee (PC), intrigue still remains:
“In particular, we are waiting for who will be announced as a replacement for the “economic king”, Vice Premier Liu He. Here, most forecasts converge on the head of the planning body of the GRRC, He Lifen. This comrade likes large-scale investment in infrastructure and, unlike Liu He, can significantly expand credit stimulus. Which in the short and medium term may be favorable for the Chinese economy.
And besides, the closer the congress, the louder the official Chinese media declare the importance of the Zero-Covid policy. This leaves little chance of seeing a change in approach to the coronavirus shortly after the convention…”