Posted 1 ноября 2022, 13:44
Published 1 ноября 2022, 13:44
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Global warming, war and inflation: the world seems to be in a state of constant crisis right now. In a sensational interview with the influential German magazine Spiegel, the "prophet of catastrophes", the famous American economist Nouriel Roubini, called the mega-threats that the world will face in the near future. Among other things, Roubini said that "World War III has already actually begun," and we are expecting a Chinese attack on Taiwan, a war between Turkey and Greece, the greatest economic crisis in Europe and a civil war in the United States. Novye Izvestia cites the most interesting moments from this interview:
I was in Washington for an IMF meeting. Economic historian Niall Ferguson said we'd be lucky if we got an economic crisis like the 1970s, not a war like the 1940s. National security advisers were concerned about NATO intervention in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and that Iran and Israel were heading for a collision. And I read this morning that the Biden administration expects China to attack Taiwan soon. To be honest, the Third World War has already actually begun, especially in Ukraine and in cyberspace.
Of course, politicians should take care of Russia and Ukraine before they take care of Iran, Israel or China. But they also have to think about inflation and recessions.
The Eurozone is already in recession, and I think it will be a long one. It's even worse in the United Kingdom. The pandemic appears to be contained, but new variants of COVID may soon emerge. And climate change is a slow catastrophe that is accelerating.
For each of the 10 threats that I describe in my book, I can give you 10 examples that are happening right now, not in the distant future. There has been a drought all over the world this summer, including in the United States. Not far from Las Vegas, the drought is so severe that the bodies of mafiosi from the 1950s have been found in the dried-up lakes. In California, farmers are now selling their water rights because it's more profitable than growing anything. And in Florida, you can no longer insure homes on the coast. Half of Americans will eventually have to move to the Midwest or Canada. This is science, not speculation.
Today the situation is worse than in the 1970s, when we also had an energy crisis, high inflation and stagnation. We didn't have as much public and private debt then as we do today. If central banks raise interest rates now to fight inflation, many companies, shadow banks and government agencies will go bankrupt. In addition, the oil crisis was caused by several geopolitical upheavals then, today there are more. And just imagine the impact of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, which produces 50% of the world's semiconductors and 80% of high quality semiconductors. It would be a global shock. Today we are more dependent on semiconductors than on oil.
I'm worry. Democracies are fragile when big upheavals occur. There will always be someone who will say: “I will save the country” and blame the foreigners for everything. Erdogan could do to Greece what Russia did to Ukraine next year and try to create a crisis because otherwise he could lose the election. If Donald Trump runs again and loses the election, this time he could openly call for white supremacists to storm the Capitol. We can see violence and real civil war in the US...
Nouriel Roubini - born in 1958. One of the most famous economists in the world, professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He predicted the financial crisis of 2008, as well as the collapse of the global economy at the very beginning of the coronavirus pandemic.