What and where can refugees from Kherson buy for a housing certificate

Alexander Dybin

It was reported that up to 100,000 residents of Kherson, who were offered to leave the city, could receive such certificates. With these certificates they will be able to purchase housing in other subjects. According to the president of the St. Petersburg Chamber of Real Estate Dmitry Shchegelsky , the mechanics of working with these documents will be the same as with other housing certificates: first, a deal, then the seller of the apartment applies to government agencies and cashes the certificate. But it is also interesting whether the settlers will go en masse to certain cities or be distributed evenly across the country. And how such an influx of customers will affect the market, whether prices will creep up.

“Rumors have spread throughout Russia that thanks to housing certificates issued to migrants from the Kherson region, real estate prices will go up,” says Shchegelsky.

The realtor tried to understand the situation, but could not find a regulatory framework, so one has to make assumptions on analogies with other certificates.

“I made calculations and figured out how many people there might be and what effect they would have on the market,” the expert says, “today, according to various estimates, there are about 50,000 migrants. In total, about 1 million people lived in the Kherson region. If there are 100,000 migrants who have received certificates, and they all go and buy an apartment or a house, this will amount to approximately 2.3% of the total volume of transactions in the Russian secondary market, which in 2021 amounted to 4.2 million transactions. I do not think that people who have nowhere to live will invest in the primary. It follows from this that such a volume of transactions will not affect prices in any way, because the volume of transactions is too small.

But there are risks if too many people with similar certificates come to one city. For example, 100,000 is the annual number of transactions in the secondary market in St. Petersburg.

I agree with the opinion that clients from Kherson will not bring down the market and the head of the agency "Engineer" Elena Nedospasova , in her opinion, there are so few sales now that additional transactions will not make any difference.

“The market fell in October, it will be even sadder in November,” the expert says, “I talked with partners in Russian cities for several days, everyone has the same situation. In conditions of uncertainty, people are afraid to take apartments and drips. Certificates are still from the category of a myth, no one has seen them. In general, the year is very difficult, activity was noted only in July-August, when developers introduced a large number of shares, if only there were sales. Construction is a catalyst for many processes, but this circulation of money is still driven by purchasing power, but people are afraid to invest. There are hopes for December, this is traditionally a high month, but we do not count on super-results in this code, there would be at least some growth.”

What can I buy for a certificate

Certificates are calculated based on social norms: for a single person - at least 33 square meters. For a family of two - at least 42 square meters. Three - then 18 square meters per family member. The price will be based on the normative cost of a meter of housing, which is used in Russia to calculate subsidies, now it is 83.4 thousand rubles per square meter.

“Consequently, the cost of a one-room apartment according to the certificate should be about 3.1 million rubles, a two-room apartment - 4.8 million rubles, a three-room apartment - 6.3 million rubles, - Dmitry Shchegelsky argues . In the case of St. Petersburg, and even more so in Moscow, there is practically no need to talk about buying new housing for such prices. But, of course, there are cities where the meter is cheaper. Most likely, the settlers will choose the cities where they once lived, or have relatives and friends, and then focus on prices.”

How much does a square meter cost in Russian cities (average value)

Moscow - 298,866 rubles

St. Petersburg - 196,614 rubles

Belgorod - 96,845 rubles

Volgograd - 79,020 rubles

Kazan - 139,451 rubles

Yekaterinburg - 110,922 rubles

Krasnodar - 107,290 rubles

Chelyabinsk - 62,527 rubles

Yaroslavl - 81,566 rubles

The market does not see refugees

About 4.6 million refugees arrived in Russia from the territory of Ukraine. This was reported by TASS, citing sources in law enforcement agencies. However, the market of real estate services simply does not see this number of people. According to market participants interviewed by Novye Izvestia, those who come from Ukraine do not seek help when buying or renting a home. As a rule, refugees live in points of temporary residence, but it is not possible to stay there for a long time. Logically, people should settle closer to their relatives or place of work. But these people do not apply to realtors.

“I don’t see such clients, although there is something to compare with, I remember the waves of migration in the 90s, when compatriots left Georgia and other former Soviet republics,” says Dmitry Shchegelsky , “people from Ukraine were clearly visible after 2014. But now, at least we don't have them. But another problem emerged. It turned out that quite a few Ukrainian citizens owned real estate in our country and tried to sell it in recent months. Now this is a problem, the money from such transactions goes to a special account marked “C” and it is impossible to withdraw it from there, it is impossible to transfer it. They are blocked by the Central Bank. Of these, you can pay taxes, fines, but withdraw - no. Money just gets stuck. As far as I know, for several months no one has found a legal way to circumvent this norm. At the same time, there are nuances, if a person has dual citizenship, he can sell real estate on a Russian passport. But if a residence permit is in Russia, then 50 to 50. For someone, the transaction goes through, for someone it is blocked. What it depends on is not clear. We turned to the Central Bank and Rosreestr, asked to explain how we can work with such clients, according to the logic, a residence permit is equal to a resident. But we haven't received clear answers yet."