Posted 5 ноября 2022, 08:32
Published 5 ноября 2022, 08:32
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Western experts assessed the Kremlin's decision to conduct partial mobilization and made a forecast for the future of Russia's special operation in Ukraine. In their reasoning, they believe that Russia is relying on manpower. The successful mobilization has helped replenish troops, and some speculate that the Kremlin expects to eventually deploy many more soldiers. This is a serious challenge for the Ukrainian army - what can Ukraine oppose to an absolute advantage in manpower?
According to analysts compiled and published by the Re-Russia online publication, with the support of the Western coalition, Kiev is able to neutralize it and even launch a successful offensive. This can be achieved through technical superiority in armaments, the development of the mobility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and supply chains that allow for the rapid deployment of troops to different sectors of the stretched front, the destruction of key railway supply junctions of the Russian army, as well as massive strikes along the front line in order to sow panic among the mobilized recruits. . One way or another, SMO (Special military operation) is reaching a new level of scaling, and therefore, a new scale of expected victims.
To successfully meet the new challenges that have arisen due to mobilization, Ukraine should, according to RUSI analysts, strive to achieve technological superiority on the battlefield with the support of NATO countries. Such superiority will make it possible to effectively hit command posts, air defense systems, electronic warfare, troop concentrations and military logistics of the Russian army. Effective pinpoint strikes neutralize the Kremlin's manpower advantage, RUSI experts believe.
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) believes that Ukraine's possible response to the Russian mobilization should consist of several elements.
Firstly, this is a new military conscription of Ukrainian citizens, who, at the same time, must undergo full-fledged and long-term training in the United States, Great Britain, Sweden, Denmark and Poland. Secondly, it is targeted strikes against railway junctions and military depots, including those located on the territory of Russia. Russian military logistics primarily depends on the railways. ECFR experts believe that Ukraine has the right and opportunity to raise the stakes, especially since Kyiv has already carried out strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation several times, and they were left without a significant reaction from the media and Russian diplomats.
However, for this, Ukraine needs supplies of long-range artillery systems from the West.
Thirdly, the impact on the morale of the mobilized Russian soldiers: with the help of massive artillery strikes, the Ukrainian army wants to force these fighters to leave their positions en masse and retreat. However, for this, the Ukrainian army needs Western self-propelled artillery - PzH 2000, CAESAR and M109A6 Paladin.
Fourthly, this is an increase in the maneuverability of the Ukrainian army, which will make it possible to quickly transfer forces from one sector of the front to another. Mobility will enable the Armed Forces of Ukraine to quickly surround and push back Russian soldiers where the Russian army has depleted supplies and has weak points in the defense. According to experts, an increase in the maneuverability of the Ukrainian army can be achieved using either German Leopard 2 tanks or American Abrams.
The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) also believes that Ukraine's technical superiority in weapons should be a key element in the response to Russian mobilization. However, in addition to the supply of modern types of weapons, CEPA also suggests thinking about strengthening the logistics network in Ukraine, since success on the battlefield depends on the operational supply of ammunition, the transfer of troops and the pulling together of reserves. A developed logistics chain will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to achieve quantitative superiority in the necessary sectors of the front and fire advantage. But the West needs to help Ukraine strengthen its supply chains, which requires financial and intellectual resources.
BY THE WAY
Today, one of the Russian TG channels submitted a memorandum downloaded by hackers to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the real technical support of one well-known motorized brigade. It turned out that out of 18 tanks, only one was fit for battle! And out of a hundred armored personnel carriers, 5 remained in service ... So, perhaps, new portions of weapons will go not so much to strengthen the combat and firepower of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but only to replenish the failed vehicles. The huge problem is that in the Ukrainian army there are practically no opportunities for prompt repair of equipment - there are no spare parts, no personnel and enterprises capable of repairing tanks, guns and armored personnel carriers.