Supercomputer bets on Brazil: artificial intelligence predicted the outcome of the World Cup

A team of experts from the universities of Innsbruck, Ghent, Luxembourg, Dortmund and Munich have used a supercomputer to predict the outcome of the World Cup, which starts this week in Qatar, according to the Daily Mail. Artificial intelligence calculated that the Brazilian national team, which will play with Argentina in the final on December 18, has the greatest chance of winning. Among the contenders for victory are also the Netherlands, Germany and France.

The forecast was made using a hybrid model that combines data from three statistical models. Information was analyzed on the playing advantages of different teams (match results over the last 8 years, market value or number of Champions League players in each team), betting odds of 28 international bookmakers, as well as socio-economic factors related to participating countries (for example, the size GDP). The computer simulated 100,000 possible match outcomes.

The researchers warn that their forecast may well turn out to be wrong - otherwise football tournaments would simply be boring. “We provide probabilities, not certainties,” the authors say. By the way, this is exactly what happened with a similar forecast for the last World Cup: it did not come true.

The current World Cup is interesting because of the unusual season: due to the summer heat in Qatar, it had to be postponed to the winter months. Because of this, the players will come to the championship, interrupting their performances in the national championships, they will have less time to prepare and recover. Combined with extreme climatic conditions, this will increase the risk of injury and unpredictable outcomes.

Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup

The teams with the highest chance of winning. The probability of winning is given as a percentage.

1) Brazil - 15%

2) Argentina - 11.2%

3) The Netherlands - 9.7%

4) Germany - 9.2%

5) France - 9.1%

6) Spain - 7.5%

7) England - 7.4%

8) Belgium - 7.2%

9) Denmark - 6.5%

10) Portugal - 5.5%