Posted 17 ноября 2022, 09:02
Published 17 ноября 2022, 09:02
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:38
Deputy Labor Minister Yelena Mukhtiyarova said at a meeting of the General Council of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia that by the end of the year, the average increase in the nominal wages of Russians could be 11.6%, which is lower than the expected level of annual inflation.
At the same time, real disposable incomes of the population are falling rapidly. But the share of mandatory payments - taxes, fees, fines, insurance payments and loan servicing - on the contrary, is growing.
According to Rosstat, according to the results of the first, second and third quarters, real disposable income decreased by 1.2%, 0.8% and 3.4%, respectively. These are official statistics. Investment banker, HSE professor Yevgeny Kogan predicts that by the end of the year, obviously, Russians will miss at least 10-15% of their disposable income.
As for the expenses, the Russians now spend at least 14% on the repayment of mandatory payments, experts have calculated. In 2020, this share was 13.3%.
Yelena Kisileva, an analyst at the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies, recalled that mandatory payments do not include the cost of housing and communal services, since payments for water, heat, electricity and gas are already consumption.
But even without a communal apartment, only mandatory items of expenditure collectively “eat up” at least 9 trillion rubles a year from households.
The increase in the share of obligatory payments is explained not only by the debt load of citizens, who, in terms of the volume of retail loans collected, overtook the state budget of the country (Russians, we recall, owe banks more than 25.8 trillion rubles). The tax burden on individuals also contributed.
“In 2021-2022, the tax burden on individuals continued to grow. In particular, this was affected by an increase in the cadastral value of real estate, on the basis of which property tax is paid; revision of the list of cars subject to taxation with an increased coefficient when paying transport tax; an increase in the cost of insurance policies (for example, OSAGO), an increase in income tax to 15% on incomes over 5 million rubles a year and a number of other changes,” Elena Kisileva specified.
Chief Economist of the Institute of Stock Market and Management (IFRU), Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Belyayev called the current indicators a “poor pace”.
“Not only that, under the influence of inflation, real wages are reduced, which can be converted into goods and services. Mandatory payments are also growing, which are already reducing the nominal salary, that is, directly the wad of money that is in your hands. In other words, your ability to buy goods and services is curtailed on two sides: on the one hand by inflation, and on the other by mandatory payments. This is a bad pace”, - Mikhail Belyayev assessed.
According to the baseline forecast of the Bank of Russia, by the end of the current year, the inflation rate in Russia should be 12-13%, which is comparable to the period of the severe financial crisis of 2014-2016. Then inflation jumped to 12.9% and in 2016 “calmed down” to 5.4%. Last year, we recall, money depreciated by 8.3%.
Mikhail Belyaev notes that one of the main reasons for the rise in inflation is monopolistic pricing.
“This is mainly due to the fact that large companies that occupy a monopoly, that is, a dictatorial position in the market, dictate their price level. Starting from December 1, early indexation of gas tariffs awaits us. In the spring, supermarkets raised prices under the guise of rising energy costs. Once prices are raised, they don't come down again. The reason for inflation is monopolistic pricing”, - says economist Belyayev.
Evgeny Kogan, assessing the recent decision to unscheduledly increase gas tariffs in Russia by 8.5% from December 1, noted that additional household expenses due to the postponement of tariff indexation and an increase in their scale in 2023 will amount to 0.3 trillion rubles.
“Each Russian household that knows how to count, for sure, has already calculated: the average monthly check for housing and communal services in the Russian Federation is about 3,500-4,000 rubles. Bye. Now. Its growth by 10% in all 55 million households in the country will give about 240 billion rubles a year, which, as usual, will go nowhere, ”Kogan wrote in his official public page on VKontakte and recalled that according to the same Rosstat, more than 21 million Russians live below the poverty line and about 50–60 million more people are close to it.
“In such families, every penny is counted, but here the bill goes to thousands of rubles a year. This money, to put it mildly, not very wealthy people, could spend on more expensive food, which they already lack. But who cares: “People are the second oil”, - summed up the investment banker.
It should be clarified that in the regional context, the share of expenses of Russians on housing and communal services varies significantly. As reported in the study by RIA Novosti, the value of this indicator in the regions varies from 5.6% to 14.2%.