In favor of the poor: loans today are taken mainly by those who do not have enough money to live on

Vasily Krutov

The corporate loan portfolio of banks is growing, and the growth in consumer lending is much lower than inflation, that is, these loans can buy fewer goods, follows from the data of the October review of the Central Bank on the state of the banking sector. The most active corporate borrowers are developers, who continue to borrow despite falling demand.

However, the demand for credit on the part of enterprises does not indicate an increase in business activity. Businesses need money to adapt to new conditions: logistics has become more complicated, prepayments for import contracts have increased, external borrowing is impossible. These costs will then be translated into prices. At the same time, the population, disoriented by the course of the special operation and mobilization, is postponing major purchases, and a third of all loans are taken by those who do not have enough to live on.

In October, banks continued to increase business lending, states a new review of the Central Bank "On the development of the banking sector of the Russian Federation." Over the month, the growth of the corporate portfolio amounted to 2.4%, or 1.3 trillion rubles. After a shock pause in March-June, when lending stagnated, the portfolio began to grow in July, and since August the monthly growth has reached the current level. The Central Bank explains the high dynamics by "replacing external borrowings, as well as active lending to housing construction." Since the beginning of the year, the growth has amounted to 10.7%, or 5.4 trillion rubles, which is slightly less than in 2021 (11.7%).

However, an increase in credit does not necessarily mean an increase in business activity - it can equally reflect an increase in producers' costs, analysts of the Re-Russia online publication are sure. “The increased demand for loans is also due to the replacement of external borrowings... The need for resources is also associated with investments in the transformation and adaptation of businesses, the complication of supply chains, and an increase in prepayments under import contracts,” the Central Bank itself comments on the situation. And in the October index of business activity of small and medium-sized businesses RSBI (it is made up of Opora Rossii, PSB Bank and Magram Market Research agency), of all its components, only loans are growing, while sales, personnel and investments are in decline.

Construction is credited more actively than other sectors. Growth in October - 4.6%, or 200 billion rubles. At the same time, the net inflow to escrow accounts in October was 59% lower than a year ago (escrow is a special account from which money can be withdrawn only after handing over the keys to the apartment, ed .). Construction is carried out at the expense of a loan, the rate for which varies depending on the results of sales. The former chief analyst of Dom.rf, Sergey Skatov, draws attention to the fact that in recent months, the growth of the debt portfolio of developers is three to four times faster than the growth of the escrow portfolio. As new housing is commissioned, old bills are opened up, and overall sales are falling. By the end of 2023, according to Skatov, the coverage of developers’ debt with money in escrow accounts may drop to 50-60%, which “will sharply increase the cost of lending and fall into the cost price, limiting the possibility of price reductions”.

Lending to citizens is stagnating in nominal terms. Mortgages are also slowing down (from September's 2.3% to 1.8% growth in October). The Central Bank attributes this to "increased uncertainty for both borrowers and banks." The issuance of mortgage loans decreased by 13% to 448 billion rubles.

The increase in unsecured consumer lending in October amounted to 0.3% against 0.9% in September. The Central Bank explains this by “a decrease in demand from the population, which has postponed large purchases in the face of increased uncertainty, and a tightening of the credit policy of banks.” Year-on-year consumer lending grew by 3.9%, which is much lower than inflation (12.6%). This means that citizens will buy fewer goods with these loans. Retailer data shows that citizens are saving even on food and everyday goods. At the same time, from January 1, 2023, the regulator will limit the issuance of unsecured loans by introducing the so-called macroprudential limits.

Dynamics of the consumer lending portfolio in nominal and real terms, January 2021 — September 2022, billion rubles

Edition Frank Media notes that a third of consumer loans fall on the most indebted borrowers, that is, those who have more than 80% of earnings to pay off debts. In the third quarter, the share of loans issued to such borrowers rose to 32% from 28% in the second. In addition, the share of consumer loans issued for a period of more than five years remains quite high (15%).

As for the funds of legal entities and individuals on the accounts, they generally decreased, although there are nuances. The funds of legal entities in October decreased by 1.1%, or by 500 billion rubles. In September there was an increase of 2.3%. The Central Bank calls these values ​​"moderate". The main reason is the payment of dividends and taxes in the oil and gas industry. At the same time, the ruble balances grew slightly - the currency balances decreased.

The outflow of funds from individuals (excluding escrow accounts) in October amounted to 0.3%, or 98 billion rubles. In September, against the backdrop of “partial mobilization,” citizens withdrew almost half a trillion rubles (a record 458 billion) from their accounts. In October, as we see, at a much lower rate, but the outflow continued. At the same time, ruble accounts showed a slight increase - by 113 billion (+0.4%), and foreign currency balances decreased by 211 billion (-6%), which "is associated both with the conversion into rubles and with transfers abroad," notes Central Bank.