Automotive industry, timber, coal, gas... Which sectors of the economy fell and did not wring out

Yekaterina Maksimova

The auto industry regions, the leaders of the timber industry, metallurgical and coal mining areas were under attack. Gas-bearing arteries have already begun to sag.

Central Federal District

In the Central Federal District for the specified period, only in seven out of 18 regions, the IPP exceeded 100%. The Kaluga region sank the most (reducing the IPP to 84%), which has ceased to be a key manufacturer of auto components for foreign auto concerns. ACRA analysts specify that the volume of production of components in the first nine months amounted to only a third of the same indicator in 2021.

A noticeable decline in car production (the volume of shipments decreased by almost half) was also recorded in Moscow, while the capital, taking into account the diversification of the economy, did not notice such a failure (IPP 108.9%).

Northwestern Federal District

Of the 11 subjects, only four showed an increase in IPP. Here, the absolute anti-leader is the Kaliningrad region, where the IPP fell to 81.9%. “Production indicators here, as in the Kaluga Region, decreased due to the shutdown of the largest automaker: in September, the output of vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers amounted to 17% of the level of September 2021,” ACRA experts specify.

Ural federal district

The richest gas-bearing basin in Russia - Yamal - showed a decrease in the index to 99.9% (due to a reduction in gas production to 86.7%). In the Sverdlovsk region (the cradle of metallurgists), the IPP was 99.4%.

Only two out of six regions of the Ural Federal District showed an increase in IPP based on the results of nine months. In the oil-bearing Yugra (KhMAO), the index rose to 103.5%. The traditionally poor Kurgan region showed unexpectedly positive dynamics, where the largest growth was recorded in the production of electrical equipment, machinery and equipment (Kurgan Machine-Building Plant, a manufacturer of infantry fighting vehicles, is part of the Rostec state corporation).

Volga Federal District

Only in five out of 14 regions the index of industrial production increased. The Republic of Mari El, the region's leader in the production of food and beverages, has the most serious fall.

In the black, the oil producer Republic of Tatarstan with an IPP of 107.8%.

Siberian Federal District

Growth of IPP was recorded only in six regions out of ten. The "coal" Kemerovo region and the Republic of Khakassia have sunk due to the embargo on Russian coal supplies to the European Union since August this year.

Far Eastern Federal District

Only four regions out of 11 showed positive dynamics.

The Sakhalin region became the anti-leader (PPI 75.4%, where oil production in physical terms decreased by about half, gas production decreased by 14%). “At the same time, the volume of shipped products in the extractive industry increased, which was, apparently, the result of high prices for hydrocarbons,” ACRA analysts specified.

Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts

The regions of these districts, as the most insensitive to the impact of the sanctions, did not experience a serious drop in general. The economy of the subjects was also supported by developed agriculture.

A decrease in IPP was recorded only in the Krasnodar Territory, Astrakhan Region and Crimea.

“The economy of the Astrakhan region is more than a third dependent on the oil and gas industry, where production volumes were declining, and in the Krasnodar Territory, the negative dynamics was typical for the oil refining sector,” ACRA said.

Economic geographer, specialist in the field of socio-economic development of regions Natalya Zubarevich ranked the regions that are in the most difficult situation.

The regions of the automotive industry were the first to suffer (the decline in the manufacturing industry in the Kaluga and Kaliningrad regions -29% and 20%, respectively). It became easier for Samara and Ulyanovsk regions (-4% and -8% respectively), where car production resumed (Sollers, Lada). In the whole country, only 36% remained from the production of passenger cars (by October 2021).

“Under the second blow and growing - these are the regions of timber processing. Everything became tough there by the end of the summer, when sanctions were imposed on the import of timber products from Russia. And we have in October the production of forest products, processed wood -20%. If we take it by individual types, then plywood, which we very actively transported to Europe, -37%, even the cellulose, which had been holding up until recently, “bent” “bent”. The country as a whole is -8%,” Natalya Zubarevich noted and added that it is mainly the regions of the North-West (Karelia, Astrakhan region) that are under attack, since it is extremely difficult to “drag” exports from the West to the East.

The third risk group, according to Natalya Zubarevich, is the metallurgical and coal mining regions. Metallurgical production and steel in the whole country - minus 16% (the dynamics of the manufacturing industry in the Vologda and Lipetsk regions - minus 15%).

The production of hard coal and coking coal in Russia decreased by 7% and 8%, respectively. “Among those affected is the expected Kemerovo region, where the manufacturing industry fell by 10%, and there it is mainly coal and metallurgy. This is Khakassia and further down the list,” Zubarevich continued.

Separately, the expert noted Sakhalin, where "the extractive industries crashed by 60%", because the Sakhalin-1 project was temporarily suspended.

As for the main breadwinner of the country - the oil and gas sector, the oil industry is still afloat, but gas production has begun to decline.

“In general, everything in the oil industry is very tolerable so far. There was no noticeable decline in the production of oil and oil and gas condensate (-1%). Because they were still selling. If we look at the dynamics of industrial production in the extractive industries, then oil regions will be among the leaders. Nenets District + 13%, Tatarstan + 8%, Yakutia + 8%, because everything goes to Asia. But gas is a problem. Russian gas production has already decreased by 20%,” Natalya Zubarevich summed up.

According to the results of the third quarter in the regions of the Russian Federation, there has not yet been a collapse in key tax revenues. The total volume of revenues of the consolidated budgets of the subjects amounted to 14.06 trillion rubles, which is 17.9% higher than in the same period in 2021.

Experts of the Institute for Economic Policy. Gaidar noted that all major taxes showed positive dynamics. In particular, corporate income tax remained in positive territory following the results of nine months (21.7%). But this is a derivative of the economic growth of a prosperous 2021 and the result of the first months of 2022, when the economy has not yet fully felt the sanctions pressure.

“The strong overall budget revenues for the three quarters are due to the strong growth during the first five months (+26.9%), while in the third quarter, revenues grew by only 6.1%. First of all, this was the result of a 20.1% decrease in corporate income tax receipts after an increase of 52.1% in the first five months of 2022,” the experts of the Institute named after A. Gaidar.