Is emigration useful for Russia? How mass exodus affected the economy of the country

Statistics and assessments of the state of the Russian economy for 10 months of 2022 and, in particular, for October, are quite optimistic for a country that is fighting under the conditions of foreign trade restrictions and a payment blockade, experts of the Nezygar analytical channel say. And they give their reasons for such a conclusion:

GDP slowed down

The index of output of goods and provision of services by basic types of economic activity slowed down the decline (in October (-) 3.2% yoy compared to September (-) 3.6%. Since the beginning of the year, this indicator was (-) 2.6% , less than the decline in GDP (-4.4%), which indicates the restructuring of the economy in favor of the real sector at the expense of the financial intermediary segment.But GDP also slowed down the decline by 0.1% in October against September. growth continued.

The uniqueness of the situation is that a positive economic trend was formed at a time when, according to various estimates, from 700 thousand to 1 million 300 thousand able-bodied citizens of mobilization age left Russia, or approximately 1.1.5% of the active working population. At the same time, the post-sanction consequences were growing - a drop in exports and restrictions on imports.

Mass emigration has only benefited

The combination of these two factors, according to formal logic, should have increased the negative in GDP and reduced material production. The real mirror result can be explained by two reasons: mainly persons employed in the shadow intermediary and financial-speculative spheres, who do not produce a real product, moved abroad. Their departure did not affect the economy in any way; moreover, it freed up additional resources due to a decrease in the number of consumers and, accordingly, the material goods they consume. Foreign trade restrictions made it possible to redirect part of exports to the needs of structural adjustment, increasing the supply of motor fuel, mineral fertilizers, metal and metal products on the market and stimulating production growth and reducing its cost.

The country is returning to state regulation of the economy

The main factor in the relatively favorable situation in the economy is due to the increasing role of the state as the core of the economy through the development of targeted financing in the framework of strategic planning in the form of national projects. By increasing the tax pressure on oligarchic export-oriented groups, the government of Mishustin-Belousov increased budget investments in the real sector of the economy by 45% year-on-year. Construction became a priority as the basis for new production capacities - due to benefits and preferences, the industry grew by 9.6% in October and by 5.8% in 10 months. And agriculture as a basic consumer and export industry - plus 4.2% in October and 5% in ten months.

It is possible to intensify on an accrual basis investments in material production in excess of budgetary restrictions and the government's reserve fund, using the potential of the financial and credit system (about 74 trillion rubles of funds from the population and legal entities). In this option, according to the calculations of experts from the Russian Academy of Sciences, it is possible to reach 4.5% -5% growth in real GDP, cleared of fictitious speculative value, by the end of 2023. However, for this it is necessary to change the status of the regulator and the orientation of the banking system exclusively to receive monetary profit. (one of the precedents is the system of Muslim or Orthodox banking, free from IMF regulations).