Is it worth buying a new apartment right now and will square meters become cheaper in 2023

Yekaterina Maksimova

Over the past five years, the cost of apartments in the primary market has almost doubled. If in 2017 a square meter in a new building cost on average less than 60 thousand rubles, then by the end of 2022 it will already be 109.2 thousand. In the last couple of years alone, apartments have increased in price by at least 20% per year. According to Rosstat, according to the results of the first half of this year, the price bubble continued to inflate: the average cost of 1 sq. m in the primary increased by 20.9%. There are cities where growth exceeded 30% (Samara +39%, Kazan +34%, Rostov-on-Don +30%).

Question of the year: will the price race continue?

Head of the ERZ portal. RF Kirill Holopik:

- Under the conditions of project financing, there can be no significant reduction in prices for new buildings. This increases the risks of non-repayment of loans to banks for construction. When there are trends towards falling prices, banks slow down the opening of project financing for new projects, which reduces the range of new buildings for sale and supports prices. This is how the market works in terms of project financing. Therefore, it is worth waiting not for a fall in prices, but for a slowdown in the launch of new projects.

President of the regional association of the Russian Guild of Realtors "The Guild of Realtors of the Chernozem Region" Galina Panova:

- Do not forget that we live in a period of uncertainty, and we have no understanding of how the changing structure of consumer demand will develop. Today, there are many determining factors: geopolitics, sanctions, prices for building materials, government support for mortgages, preferential programs from developers. These factors can affect both plus and minus prices.

If you are interested in objects in residential complexes of economy and comfort class, then everything here depends on the implementation of the project, liquidity and infrastructure. But if you take all the factors, developers will systematically maintain a policy of gradual price increases. State support will play an important role. After all, construction is the driver of the economy, and programs to support the industry will be considered pointwise. I also agree with the opinion that prices have reached the ceiling, but nevertheless, there are all prerequisites for prices to rise.

Nadezhda Korkka, Managing Partner of Metrium:

- In my opinion, new buildings in the capital in 2023 will rise in price, at least at the level of inflation. This will be facilitated, first of all, by the gradual recovery of demand due to affordable mortgages and the continuing rise in prices for building materials.

Deputy General Director of the Unistroy development company Iskander Yusupov:

- It's unlikely to get cheaper. There are no such prerequisites. And in any case, new buildings will rise in price at least by the level of inflation; in 2022, our projects have grossly increased in price by 18%.

General Director of the development company "SMU-6 Investments" (developer of the residential complex "Love and Doves" and Clementine) Alexey Perlin:

- Taking into account the constantly rising prices of materials and the departure of a number of large suppliers from the country, construction cannot be cheap. Accordingly, developers are not ready to run a loss-making business and raise prices for the final product. But the advantage is that two key conditions - reduced demand and high cost - will lead to a balance, that is, apartments will not significantly rise in price, as well as become cheaper.

Press Service of the First Trust Group of Companies (Republic of Bashkortostan):

-Most likely, in 2023, prices for primary real estate will stagnate, since from January 1, 2023, the preferential mortgage rate will increase by 1%, which in turn will make buying a home less affordable for many.

Member of the Board of the Russian Guild of Realtors, President of the Association "Experts of the real estate market of the Chernozem region" Natalia Kolesnikova:

-When prices for new buildings decrease, the marginal profit of developers falls. Therefore, in the future, most likely, there will be a slight increase in prices on the market, but developers will make discounts for individual objects. In order to take advantage of special offers, you need to work closely with realtors who quickly and accurately track promotions for their clients.

In recent years, the market for new buildings was, rather, not a real estate market, but an exchange market, where the lion's share of demand was formed by investors. Based on this, if consumer demand is stable, then price growth will be constant.

Denis Demyanenko, Director of the Sezar Group Sales Department:

-Perhaps individual projects will become cheaper: low-liquidity, without pronounced competitive advantages, with a high volume of unsold apartments. But the global “collapse” that skeptics promise every crisis will not happen. It should be understood that the cost of construction has increased, especially in projects with a high-quality engineering component, that most new buildings are being implemented as part of project financing, and developers do not have, as before, a liquidity crisis. There are prerequisites for growth, but whether they can be realized against the backdrop of a reduction in effective demand remains a big question today.

Is it worth buying apartments in new buildings right now - at the end of the year? Waiting for even bigger discounts from developers?

Member of the Board of the Russian Guild of Realtors, President of the Association "Experts of the real estate market of the Chernozem region" Natalia Kolesnikova:

-If you buy an apartment for life, then this must be done regardless of what will happen tomorrow. If you invest in the construction process, then now I would not recommend doing this, I would wait for better conditions.

In the housing market, construction companies most often use dynamic pricing. This means that “they raised the price for something, but lowered the price for something”, and tomorrow the same thing. Therefore, if the buyer wants to see low prices, he should consider apartments not from a builder, but, say, from a contractor, or, perhaps, objects at the “pitting” stage from a trusted developer with a stable financial history.

Representative of SZ Green Boulevard LLC Evgeny Koval :

-For those who until the last thought to buy an apartment at a discounted rate of 0.1% from the developer. I have bad news for them. The fact is that the Central Bank has sharply criticized this type of rates due to the fact that the population is over-credited. Sberbank was the first to inform the developers that it was closing the preferential rate. Those who apply for a mortgage at a preferential rate before December 26, 2022 will be approved, after - no longer. What will happen to the shares in 2023 between the developer and the bank is unknown. Also, the preferential program State Support 2020 ceases to exist on December 31, 2022, and its rate was 6.7%.

President of the regional association of the Russian Guild of Realtors "The Guild of Realtors of the Chernozem Region" Galina Panova:

-The head of the Central Bank announced that in 2023 it is planned to introduce measures to limit risks in the segment of mortgages from developers. And today, many banks are beginning to carefully work on such programs. Accordingly, pleasant subsidized rates will still be abolished and undergo changes. Therefore, I would answer yes to the question - should I buy now.

Of course, the housing segment is of great importance in this matter. In the regions, developers do not make big discounts on objects of mass demand, economy class. In the capital, such discounts are applied in the housing segment, but this does not mean that this trend will continue next year. Therefore, it is better to have a tit in the hands, and I would advise you to seriously think and decide on the purchase.

General Director of the development company "SMU-6 Investments" Alexey Perlin :

-New Year's discounts-2022 have a significant feature - they have become much more. However, it should be taken into account that since mid-November, the market has been living in anticipation of the possible cancellation of preferential mortgages, and developers were forced to stimulate demand in order to attract new customers in time. Now that it has become known that the program has been extended, they no longer have such a need, so the time for discounts will most likely end on December 31st.

Deputy General Director of the development company "Unistroy" Iskander Yusupov:

- Naturally, buy now. After the new year, the mortgage rate will rise, and many developers are canceling subsidy programs, which will affect the amount of the monthly payment and overpayment in general for the loan. Moreover, banks cannot yet give clarifications on the detailed conditions for which objects they will act, whether for all categories of buyers or not, while only the rate of 8% is known.

Marketing Director of the Group of Companies "Monolith" Daria Osadchaya:

- As the practice of recent years shows, there is no better time to buy real estate than today. Buying real estate now is the right time for several reasons. First, from 2023, the interest rate on preferential mortgages will be increased. Only one percent, but in the monthly payment it will be reflected in several thousand rubles. Secondly, by the end of the year, developers offer favorable discounts and individual purchase conditions.

Denis Demyanenko , Sales Director of Sezar Group:

- It is definitely not worth making a decision “to buy or not”, focusing on the size of the discount in advertising. Market practice shows that a “beautiful” figure often serves only to attract attention and is obtained by artificially increasing the starting price.

Our opinion: now is a good time to buy an apartment on favorable terms. The market is gradually recovering after the shock of spring and autumn events, buyers are returning to their plans. Therefore, if a family has a need to buy an apartment, it is better not to wait for the moment when a “turn” occurs in the opposite direction. Today, most developers provide special conditions, and taking advantage of them is a good opportunity. More significant discounts are unlikely. Price conditions are now at or close to the financial model thresholds.

Managing Partner of Metrium Nadezhda Korkka:

-On the eve of the New Year, almost all leading developers have set a holiday discount for a wide pool of apartments. Discounts now average 20%, and their maximum size reaches 35%. Probably next year, customers will no longer be able to take advantage of such generous special offers.

Perhaps only married couples with two or more minor children should postpone the purchase. Next year, such clients will be able to take advantage of family mortgages. If they definitely do not want to overpay for near-zero rates, they should calculate which option is more profitable: to buy an apartment with a large discount in a mortgage at a rate of 7% or the same lot without a discount, but already on credit at 6% per annum.

Press Service of the First Trust Group of Companies:

- Today it is very difficult to predict how the situation will develop in the future. But in December, many developers are already offering huge discounts. Whether they will give even greater discounts depends on consumer demand, which can be affected by both a possible second wave of mobilization and the overall economic situation in the country. There is also a downside to the coin: when developers, on the contrary, can reduce or completely cancel discounts. In case of an unfavorable development of events, there are a number of factors that can affect the already rather high cost of construction upward: an increase in project financing rates, failure by foreign suppliers to comply with the terms of concluded contracts, as well as the conditions for the purchase and delivery of building materials.

Recall, according to the forecast of the head of the portal "Unified resource of developers" (ERZ of the Russian Federation) Kirill Kholopik, by the end of 2022, sales in new buildings will fall by a quarter. According to I RN.ru, even in Moscow, sales of new buildings have collapsed by 40% by October. And for the first time, since the introduction of the system of escrow accounts, follows from the report of the Central Bank, the amount of money in the accounts decreased (-0.6%). This suggests that the demand for primary housing in Russia has begun to decline. Market drivers this year were only unprecedented discounts from developers (up to 30%), against which the Central Bank took up arms, and preferential mortgages, the effect of which was extended by the president the day before.