Posted 26 декабря 2022, 13:37

Published 26 декабря 2022, 13:37

Modified 27 декабря 2022, 01:48

Updated 27 декабря 2022, 01:48

Results of the year: Russia urgently needs repeated "shock therapy"

26 декабря 2022, 13:37
The decline in budget revenues from oil and gas exports may well be the beginning of a tough sobering up of society from the "raw curse".

Summing up the results of the most difficult and tragic year in the history of the new Russia, network analyst Dmitry Milin compiled 12 theses characterizing the causes of the impending economic catastrophe and ways to minimize its devastating consequences:

  1. The main problem of Russia is the combination of low labor productivity with a low proportion of the population engaged in creative work. In fact, the Russian proverb "for one with a bipod, seven with a spoon" has been realized in Russia. With such a ratio of an absolute minority of people creating added value to people living off the budget, there can be no significant economic growth. Stagnation with growth rates (Rosstat, not real!!!) 1-3% is the best we can expect without changing the economic and political model.
  2. The next most important social problem is the low percentage of people who, in principle, want and can bother themselves with creative work. As Ludwig Erhard, who raised the economy of post-war Germany from the ruins, said: "No economic situation can be so hopeless that the resolute will and honest work of the ENTIRE people could not cope with it." Here in Russia, the absolute majority of the people "want social guarantees, as in Sweden, and want economic growth, as in China, but they don't want to bother themselves with creative work at all, it's better for OTHERS to work and achieve success." Moreover, the share of those who are not engaged in creative work is constantly increasing in Russia. This is combined with economic passivity (the number of people engaged in entrepreneurship is extremely low not only in comparison with developed countries, but also in comparison with Eastern Europe).
  3. The third problem is the national loss of competencies and the loss of "human capital" (due to premature death or emigration), accompanied by the degradation of school and university education. A negative, even contemptuous and consumerist attitude towards knowledge and the bearers of this knowledge has formed in Russian society. There is a public consensus between the authorities and society that those on whom technological prosperity depends (scientists, engineers, workers) do not need money and they should work for society and achieve outstanding success for beggarly (compared to developed countries) salaries. In Germany, after the 2nd century, the state began to pay extra to scientists so that they would not leave for more prosperous countries. And in our country, due to mobilization, a significant part of those who can and want to work left the country through the Upper Lars.
  4. The investment climate in Russia, through the efforts of the authorities, struck by legal nihilism with a penchant for banditry and business robbery at all levels of the "vertical of power", coupled with a society that does not want to bother with creative work and does not appreciate knowledge and its carriers, has become truly "Arctic". Sanctions after 02/24/2022 only worsened the investment climate, making investments in Russia toxic and dangerous for potential investors. Russia has no advantages for investors compared to other countries. It is not safe to do business in the Russian Federation, as there are constant risks of loss of property by entrepreneurs and (even!!!) freedom, there is no cheap labor force ready to work and train, high taxes coupled with corruption levies, a high level of legal uncertainty associated with administrative arbitrariness and constantly changing laws, and a low level of judicial protection of entrepreneurs by biased judicial authorities.
  5. The political system in Russia reflects the state of society: in politics there are embezzlers and corrupt officials in the form of the ruling party, several socialist parties promoting the principle of "take away and divide" of varying degrees of radicalism from nationalization to progressive personal income tax: The Communist Party, "SR-ZP", as well as the party personifying the main Russian "staples" in the form of the "arrogance and rudeness" of the LDPR. Theoretically, honest taxpayers engaged in creative work are represented by the party "New People" artificially created by the efforts of the AP of the Russian Federation, and even this is better than nothing.
  6. Both the authorities and society live in passive expectation of a "Miracle", maybe the world price situation will improve, its will end, suddenly out of nowhere (without the need to invest in scientific and engineering schools, values that few people in Russia understand), new "breakthrough" technologies will arise that will replace the flow of "raw rent" or arising from from nowhere, the magical OTHERS will start working for the majority, paying ever-increasing taxes for the maintenance of the majority who are not going to bother with creative work.
  7. In the current situation in Russia, the idea of a Basic Unconditional Income has become popular, implying the legislative consolidation of the desired situation, when the majority is provided with a "social minimum" without the need to work. Public and state thought is "boiling" in this direction, assigning to the role of providing the maintenance of the majority of "convicts", then disenfranchised "guest workers", then suddenly "from scratch" the "robotization" of the economy. However, the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation after 02/24/2022 "reset" these dreams along with life at the "expense of natural rent".
  8. In this situation, populists will be popular, offering a paternalistic model of government, which is promoted by the party in power, posing as Ostapbender "sowers" and bribing voters with promises of distributing budget funds collected by raising the retirement age, confiscating pension contributions to the funded pension from 2014, as well as increasing VAT by 11% for the sake of "national projects". "National projects", about the goals of which everyone has forgotten so much (but they have not forgotten to "master" money for these projects) that they can promise to give money for the construction of roads for the second time.
  9. The state of affairs in Russia is greatly worsened by the bureaucracy, enraged by impunity and irremovability, which has lost the remnants of common sense and has appointed itself "geniuses" on all issues - from innovation and business to medicine and morality. Bureaucracy, which has endowed itself with unlimited powers in relation to the property, health and life of citizens, perceived by officials in the form of "slaves" belonging to them, who are certainly obliged to support "gentlemen"-officials in a situation of permanent restriction of civil rights and freedoms, as well as a constant increase in extortion.
  10. The economy in Russia is being suffocated not only by growing taxes, total corruption and imposed sanctions, but also by an insane and ever-increasing wave of internal prohibitions, the harm from which no one calculates. The goal of retaining power by a narrow stratum of the "power", economic, political and administrative bureaucracy has long been primary in comparison with the goals of the development of the country and the economy.
  11. The political system that has developed in the country does not imply any evolutionary change of course from stagnation to development, and the bureaucratic attempts of the authorities to imitate "violent activity" only worsen the already deplorable situation in the economy and with the standard of living of most citizens.
  12. The situation that has developed in society cannot be corrected without repeated "shock therapy", a sharp reduction in the number, as well as the powers to interfere in the economy and private life of citizens of officials and "siloviki". Neither the elections to the State Duma, nor even the presidential elections, both with the retention of Vladimir Putin in power, and with a change to his successor or even to an opposition antagonist, can change the fundamental state of society. However, the decline in budget revenues from commodity exports may well become that "shock therapy 2.0" to start sobering up society from life under the "raw curse".