Figure of the day: The Ministry of Defense can raise the number of the army to 5 million only through conscription

Some media have announced statements by the Ministry of Defense, according to which from 2023 to 2026, the Russian army is waiting for large-scale changes. In particular, it is necessary to increase the size of the army to 1.5 million people!

Experts of the medical and legal company "Invokanet" analyzed the possible potential of increasing the army only at the expense of conscripts.

To calculate the potential of the possible number of conscripts, the experts of the medical and legal company "Invokanet" turned to official statistics. Now young people who were born from 1996 to 2005, that is, guys 18-27 years old, fall under the draft. Every year, from 1996 to 2005, an average of 1.3 – 1.5 million children were born.

According to statistics, the average figures show that there were 947 girls per 1,000 boys. But as they get older, these figures are smoothed out, and after the age of 32, there are fewer men. So we can conclude that half of all those born are boys.

It can be assumed that every year military commissariats may well call 700-750 thousand guys suitable for age. However, according to the draft plan, 130-135 thousand are taken in the spring, and only 120-125 thousand guys are taken in the fall. In total, military enlistment offices call only 250 thousand conscripts a year, which is 30% of all guys born according to statistics.

Thus, the remaining 500,000 young people out of 750,000 do not fall under the draft: someone receives a military ID for health reasons, someone receives deferrals due to studies, someone is hiding illegally. Since the draft age is from 18 to 27 years, we can easily calculate that 2.5 million people have served in just 10 years (250,000 guys have been drafted annually), and 5 million people have not served! 

However, if the digitalization of military enlistment offices takes place and all bases are combined, and a command is received to significantly increase the size of the army, the Ministry of Defense will be able to increase the number of fighters to 5 million only at the expense of conscripts.

The situation with raising the draft age is still unclear. If the age is raised, 6.5 million people will be subject to conscription. Some media reported that the age of conscripts will be raised this spring and citizens from 18 to 30 years old will be called to military enlistment offices in the spring. However, in order for the changes to take effect, amendments to the current legislation must be adopted, including the Federal Law "On Military Duty and Military Service". Currently, there is no draft, parliamentarians are waiting for proposals from the Ministry of Defense.

It is worth recalling about the postponement for candidates and doctors of sciences. So, today, the State Duma Defense Committee announced that they would not be exempted from partial mobilization. By the way, this bill was submitted back in November 2022. "The establishment of exemption from mobilization of all citizens with a doctorate or PhD degree proposed by the bill does not correspond to the approach currently adopted in the legislation of the Russian Federation on mobilization", - the committee noted.

Lawyers of the company "Invokanet" report that in order to confirm the right to use any deferral, it is necessary to refer only to the current laws.

By the way, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, at a meeting held today, called not only to increase the size of the army to 1.5 million people, but also to make a number of other changes. In particular, the changes will affect the composition of employees and the military-administrative division of the Russian Federation. The deadline for the implementation of the instructions is very short – during 2023-2026.