Forecast for 2023: it will be very difficult, but the country will survive…
About how Russia, in the era of falling world oil prices, will withstand Europe's rejection of Russian oil, gas and fuel oil, analyst Sergey Shelin writes in his review on the channel "We Can Explain".:
"I think both the regime and the people will survive. But with victims. I consider the model situation to be the one that was in 2014-2016. A lot of the same. And what is important is that the same people run the finances as then - Siluanov and Nabiullina. It is already difficult to surprise them with something. Experienced human beings. Real blocks. Genuine cornerstones of the system. I remember in January 2015, oil was flying down, the ruble was falling, all the bosses were rushing in different directions and only Siluanov looked as if nothing had happened. He can handle it now.
The only question is whether they will soon rewrite the budget rule and let the ruble go down. My guess is in a few months. But I understand that other options are possible. This is the main question of Russian economics today.
For Putin and his technocrats, the simultaneous collapse in prices for Russian oil and gas and a sharp decline in their sales turned out to be a complete surprise. The budget for 2023 loses trillions of rubles and becomes impossible, and the losses will pass to ordinary Russians.
The state of the Russian treasury had deteriorated sharply by the beginning of the year. It is more critical now than at any time since the beginning of its development. The budget of 2023 with expenditures of 29.1 trillion rubles. it was adjusted based on the fact that the export of Russian energy carriers will remain at the same level, and the selling price of a barrel of Urals will be $70.1. It is already obvious that these calculations have been overturned and the deficit (2.9 trillion rubles) it will at least double.
Contrary to government calculations, Russian oil sales fell by 20%, and gas sales almost tripled against the levels of a year ago. At the same time, a barrel of Urals is sold for $ 50 or even cheaper, and gas on the European market is now four times cheaper than at the August peak.
Four emergency measures can be taken to bring the budget ends to an end:
- massive withdrawal of funds from the economy;
- issue of money;
- cancellation of everything that prevents the fall of the ruble;
- reduction of budget expenditures by cutting "non-military" spending.
Most likely, they will implement a combination of all four. This will lead to a surge in inflation, a cheaper ruble and a reduction in social benefits. Here is the calculation of the exchange rate, proceeding from the optimistic assumption for the treasury that only oil prices will change, and the physical volumes of energy exports will remain:
- $60 per barrel – 67-68 rubles per dollar
- $55 – 70-71
- $50 – 74-75
- $45 – 78-79
- $40 – 82-84
- $35 – 88-90
The scale of losses that ordinary citizens will face will probably be comparable to the damage suffered during the three-year crisis of 2014-2016: over these three years, the ruble has fallen in price by half, Russian consumer prices have increased by 32.5%, and real incomes of the population have decreased by 9.5%."