From the regions to the state treasury: the tax fairy show ends

Yekaterina Maximova

The volume of taxes from oil and gas, which is traditional for the Russian economy, remains the largest.

According to the analytical service of the audit and consulting network FinExpertiza, almost three quarters of the total tax increase (72%) was provided by the mineral extraction tax (MET). MET fees increased by 3.6 trillion rubles to 11 trillion rubles. As a result, the share of MET in the structure of all tax revenues in Russia in 2022 reached a third (33%).

Oil and gas: the last "cream" The two main oil and gas "veins" of the country - the Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrugs - have collectively increased tax collections by more than a trillion.

So, in Yamal, fees increased by 30.8% (by 587.6 billion rubles) up to 2.5 trillion rubles . And Yugra (KhMAO) showed +13% (by 531.6 billion rubles) and collected 4.63 trillion rubles. The regions were able to significantly increase not only the MET fees, but also VAT. At the same time, the regional part of taxes from the KhMAO and YANAO has decreased.

The Irkutsk Region also demonstrated an incredible increase (+232% or 1.4 trillion rubles), which transferred 2 trillion rubles to the federal treasury. The main part of the Irkutsk increase was provided by taxes on gas production.

FinExpertiza analysts add that in the spring of last year, against the backdrop of record prices for raw materials, continued demand for Russian energy carriers and a weak ruble, the treasury was replenished with taxes from the oil and gas sector. And the oil and gas sector showed huge profits.

But as soon as the demand for Russian oil and gas began to decline, and the ruble strengthened, the tax base began to decrease. The excess of tax revenues over the level of 2021 has been steadily decreasing with each month of the sanctions year.

So, if by the end of the first quarter, the accumulated tax collections exceeded last year's by about 39%, then by the end of the second - by 32%, by the end of the third - by only 20%. But by the end of 2022, tax revenues to the Russian budget system ended up being 17.7% higher.

"Moreover, in the fourth quarter, the statistics of tax revenues were improved by a huge one-time payment of the mineral extraction tax by Gazprom by 1.2 trillion rubles. instead of canceled dividends for 2021. After the introduction of the oil embargo, the budget began to lose revenue, which occurred against the background of an increase in government spending. Taking into account the decline in hydrocarbon exports and the discount on Russian oil, even in the "friendly" markets that remain open, the state will no longer be able to receive revenues from oil and gas in the same volumes. At the same time, oil and gas revenues play a critical role in maintaining fiscal stability in the context of a decline in GDP. In this situation, the state has increased commodity taxes since 2023. A one-time contribution from the rental profits of the largest enterprises is being discussed. It is obvious that the authorities will look for other solutions to fill the budget deficit", - commented Yelena Trubnikova, President of FinExpertiza.

In general, economic geographer Natalia Zubarevich explains the growth of Russia's oil and gas revenues in the sanctioned year 2022 with enchanting prices, due to which a huge "currency cushion" was formed.

"This pillow, which helped to survive the first half of the year, is more or less normal. It was spent until the end of the year, it was not enough. The state budget went into deficit at the end of the year, but this cushion helped a lot", - says Natalia Zubarevich.

Political geographer Dmitry Oreshkin adds that the jump in resource prices was a painful reaction of the world, which panicked. "The indicators of the first quarter of 2022 were formed in healthy conditions. And then there was a rise in prices against the background of hysterical expectations. The past year, with the growth of tax revenues to the consolidated budget of the country, is a year of exceptions, which, I'm afraid, may create some economic illusions for the future," Oreshkin notes.

It is worth noting that Moscow is traditionally listed in the "breadwinners", but by the end of 2022, the capital showed an increase of 3.7% (this is plus 179 billion rubles, a total of 5 trillion rubles). Personal income tax collection has fallen on the dynamics.

Its crippled regions But the rest of the subjects who were unlucky with hydrocarbon reserves had to fix the drop in tax collections.

The regions of the Russian Federation with the largest reduction in tax collections in 2022 included Kaliningrad, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Kaluga, Murmansk, Kursk regions, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, St. Petersburg, Bashkortostan, Karelia. And Kaliningrad became the absolute anti-leader in the list of outsiders.

The enclave region showed a 31.2% drop in tax collections. This is minus 78.2 billion rubles. Most of all, the region has sunk in VAT. And, as FinExpertiza experts emphasize, the region's economy has seriously suffered due to the collapse of the automotive industry after the introduction of sanctions.

Maxim Bulanov, a member of the Legislative Assembly of the Kaliningrad Region, told Novye Izvestia that a "difficult situation" had indeed developed in the region.

"The main point, of course, is connected with the fall of the Avtotor plant. Thank God, at least the workers were saved and they did not go to the employment service on the stock exchange," says parliamentarian Bulanov.

He also adds that the enclave region is now facing other serious problems.

"Everything is complicated by our geographical location, we are in semi-blockade mode. We now have difficulties with food products, prices for which are Moscow and even higher. There is a shortage of construction materials and other goods. Now it's all delivered by ferry, which affects the price for the end user. The real estate market has risen. And if earlier Muscovites, residents of St. Petersburg bought cottages on the coast, now they are getting rid of this real estate. You can't leave here by car, the railway is only available for holders of foreign passports, plane tickets are very expensive. And the salaries of the population remain at the same level. People here are in such, let's say, a sad state", - Deputy Bulanov added.

And as for the regional budget, then, as Bulanov notes, the Kaliningrad region is forced to "chop up socially significant expenses" this year. As an example, the deputy cited the costs of the Zemsky Doctor program, and the financing of regional programs aimed at combating cancer and cardiovascular diseases is also being reduced.

At No. 2 in the failed list was the metallurgical Lipetsk region, which immediately sank by 52.5% (by 69.1 billion rubles) in terms of tax fees. Compared to the previous year, both the federal and regional parts of tax payments decreased in the region. The reason is a threefold drop in income tax collections. The Chukotka District also distinguished itself. And although in absolute figures the district did not collect 13.3 billion rubles, but as a percentage this figure exceeded 65%.

The border Belgorod and Kursk regions reduced tax collections by 10.6% (by 22.8 billion rubles) and by 8.7% (by 8.9 billion rubles), respectively.

As Dmitry Zhuravlev, Director General of the Institute of Regional Problems, noted, everything related to foreign policy has fallen.

"It's not surprising: taxes are falling because the economy is falling. We have to collect less, because we earned less. Those entities that were tied to foreign trade suffered the most. The same St. Petersburg is the sea gate. Or Chukotka is a supplier of fish to Japan. Also affected are those entities that are located on the border of their own territory," Zhuravlev said.

The breadwinner is the oil and gas sector, adds the director of the Institute of Regional Problems, in fact the state. "And oil and gas will not die from paying increased taxes. He will be ill, but he will die last. And what are we going to do with the processing industry? I'm more concerned about mechanical engineering, aircraft construction... The state, of course, can increase the volume of tax revenues by increasing the percentage of withdrawal. But you can trim the sheep, or you can cut them. Only then there will be no more rams", - Dmitry Zhuravlev summed up.