The unbreakable union. Will Abkhazia and South Ossetia join Russia and Belarus?

Ivan Zubov

The news about the possible annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Russia, which Putin is supposed to announce in his message on February 21, generated a lot of responses on social networks.

However, several sources hastened to inform that they do not expect the start of the accession procedure in the message, since this process is "complicated by technological procedures." First, referendums must be held in these countries, and a treaty must be signed. However, at the same time, sources do not exclude that Putin's message may contain the thesis that Abkhazia and North Ossetia may become part of the Union State.

Meanwhile, the Constitution of Abkhazia, for example, does not allow discussing the topic of renouncing sovereignty and joining another country, Secretary of the Security Council of Abkhazia Sergey Shamba told the information portal "Apsny Iakhya" ("Abkhazia today").

It is unlikely that Russia will want to further spoil relations with Georgia

Political analysts reacted differently to this news.

For example, the experts of the Briefing channel believe that this is possible, and that's why: "Probably, in the coming year Russia will lose Armenia as an ally, and Turkey will actually rule the Caucasus. Therefore, Moscow literally has the last chance to integrate the territories.

But the analyst of the channel "Successor" holds a different opinion: "The authorities of the Russian Federation just now, under the conditions of sanctions, satellite formations are beneficial. And what is the point of spoiling relations with Georgia?"

It should be noted that there are much more skeptics in this matter than optimists, as can be seen from the survey conducted by the Nezygar channel.

Yuri Dolgoruky channel: "These states are already in the zone of Russia's real influence, and the formalization of these relations now will only become an additional destabilizing factor and a reason for the escalation of an already tense situation..."

Naive Political Science Channel: "The entry of a fairly independent Abkhazia, where Russians cannot acquire land ownership, into such a union state is unlikely. However, the unification of the Ossetians is quite a logical and natural process, taking into account the opinions of both the elites and the population of the regions..."

Political scientist Sergey Markov: "For now everything will be as it is. If Georgia joins the sanctions against Russia, South Ossetia will immediately become part of Russia. And Abkhazia is almost, but not completely..."

Political scientist Dmitry Mikhailichenko:"The basic uncertainty that reigns in the post-Soviet space leaves an opportunity for inertial and sluggish projects, while strategically everything leads rather to the erosion of the post-Soviet space itself as a geopolitical reality..."

Abkhazia for Abkhazians

Political scientist Konstantin Kalachev responded to this news more wittily than others, explaining why Abkhazia would not take such a step:

"The discussion of Abkhazia becoming part of the Russian Federation means only one thing - experts who believe that Abkhazia will become part of the Russian Federation do not know anything about Abkhazia.

A classical ethnocracy has been built in Abkhazia.

Abkhazia is for Abkhazians.

If someone thinks that Abkhazians are ready to live according to Russian laws, sit and wait for the Russians to buy everything there, then he is cruelly mistaken.

Abkhazians are not ready to sell land, they are not even ready to return housing to Russian refugees. There were some symbolic actions on housing, but in fact the issue has not been resolved.

Residents of Abkhazia do not want to join Russia.

That's the whole story!"

Meanwhile, the Accents channel publishes interesting information about the current state of relations between these republics and Russia. According to journalists, the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will fly to the Kremlin and meet with Putin on the day of emergency meetings of the State Duma and the Federation Council - the day after the address to the Federal Assembly.  

"The presidents of the republics will ask Moscow to keep funding under sanctions. In return - to create a trade hub on the southern borders of Russia.

 South Ossetia and Abkhazia receive Russian money from various sources - investment programs, salaries for state employees, plus preferential loans from state banks. And subsidizing electricity.

As you can see, almost all investments are state-owned. Private business invests in Abkhazia and South Ossetia reluctantly. The risks of doing business are great - there have been cases of raiding, and even murders of Russian entrepreneurs. Moscow had to postpone the payment by Abkhazia of 2 billion rubles allocated for the reconstruction of the railway. And the Abkhaz authorities are already asking for new investments in the railway. Abkhazia is pushing through 2 more huge projects - the reconstruction of the Sukhumi port and the construction of the Sukhumi airport. At the Russian expense..."