A good riddance to bad rubbish! The authorities will not resort to reprisals against those who have escaped yet

Dmitry Mikhailichenko, political scientist

Hundreds of thousands of Russians who have left the country since the beginning of the SMO is a factor that has a deterrent effect on the future plans of the country's leadership.

The authorities are still showing rationality and are clearly trying to avoid any emergency measures, but they will still systematically increase the armed forces.

In the history of Russia, departure/departure /flight is historically regarded as a form of protest (serfs, Cossacks, emigration from the USSR, etc.) and now this factor has also had its impact on the dynamics of relations between society and the authorities.

The head of Russia in his message said that the state will not settle accounts with those who have renounced the Motherland. "Let it remain on their conscience": this means that moral condemnation will continue, but no concrete and harsh measures are yet in sight.

The management system is in search of the balance it needs in all areas. This balance does not imply a sharp increase in repression. Simply put, the situation has fallen (or risen, whichever is more convenient) by 1-2 levels and the ruling class is trying to fix it.

The campaign to intimidate those who left has played a role and now, when the number of those leaving is small, there is no need to strengthen such "moral" and psychological pressure. All the more powerful is the factor of anti-Western sentiments and the direct enemy with whom military actions are taking place. This is enough to consolidate society, and society is clearly tired of hatred and haight.

The society would like to "do everything as usual", but municipalities reduced spending on the celebration of the new year, the Day of St. Valentine is recognized as "not ours", and on February 23, it turns out that only real defenders of the Motherland should be congratulated. All this is not the agenda that allows you to strengthen social optimism, but society is already used to it, because you can simply ignore the statements of any figures and keep your nerves at rest.

It is possible to incite the rest of society against those who have left: the possibilities of state propaganda allow it, but this is fraught with indirect and negative effects and further strengthening, for example, turbo-patriots, whom no one will strengthen. Also, the persecution of those who have left is fraught with economic losses for the near-government stratum of rich people: the same developers who feed the authorities in all megacities of the country are very dissatisfied with the dynamics of the outflow of population, which has already led to a significant decrease in excess profits. Agreements with the state in terms of housing construction are good, but I would also like to sell square meters in Moscow and St. Petersburg at the price of Prague or Helsinki, but now it is not very successful.

The intention of the authorities will be aimed at the desire to avoid harsh and harsh measures, as well as extremes in order to stabilize public sentiment. This is a very strong power effect, however, given the geopolitical uncertainty, its in the long term (3-5 years) it may not be enough. But now he can stabilize the situation, for a while. In other words, the current type of nomenclature is making its move and trying to maintain its dominance.

The original is here.