New alliance and secret signs: why Xi Jinping is urgently going to visit Moscow
Yekaterina Maximova
Neither the Kremlin nor Beijing officially announce the date of the visit.
And, according to Sinologist Nikolay Vavilov, the day of the arrival of the head of the PRC will be kept secret until the last moment. The official announcement will follow only after Comrade Xi is already on the plane.
Only to Russia and only to Moscow Orientalist, Doctor of Political Sciences Andrey Vinogradov believes that this visit has a symbolic meaning and explains why Xi Jinping, having "updated" his status, first of all visited Russia, and not another country.
"There can be only one state visit during one term of office. Now Xi Jinping has been re-elected for the third time and now he can make only one state visit to Russia as the President of the People's Republic of China. And there is a tradition that the head of state, after taking office, pays a visit to the closest country. China and Russia now have the closest relations. Therefore, his arrival in Moscow is natural", - the political scientist explains.
In addition, Andrey Vinogradov adds, in a difficult international situation, such a meeting has a special significance.
"Of course, it is perceived (and the Chinese understand it) as a kind of support. There is no doubt about it. Xi Jinping's arrival testifies to the special nature of our relations, and that China itself is under pressure from the West, and this pressure is constantly increasing - both military and economic. There is a third point, purely technical: if not to Russia, then where? I think it was also difficult to find some more or less decent alternative here. Let me remind you that in 2013, Xi Jinping, when he was first elected President of the People's Republic of China, also visited Moscow. There is continuity and tradition in our relations", - Vinogradov says.
Behind the closed doors
Orientalist, political scientist Vinogradov also believes that this visit has great practical significance.
"The leaders of the two powers have something to discuss. Our trade turnover is almost 200 billion dollars. I think important agreements will be reached, serious things will be discussed: economic, political issues, the international situation. Something will be conveyed during these discussions, something will remain behind a closed door", - Vinogradov said.
Andrey Ostrovsky, Doctor of Economics, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, recalls that China has previously announced the expansion of cooperation with Moscow. "And, probably, some agreements will be signed. In all spheres, from military, political, to economic, including the supply of energy resources to China. The volume of foreign trade between Russia and China is clearly insufficient", - says Ostrovsky.
He also notes that in the new political reality, China has become Russia's "number one" partner. "At the same time, Russia's share in the total volume of China's foreign trade is only 3 percent (190 billion dollars), which is less, for example, than the volume of foreign trade between China and Vietnam", - the economist adds.
And as for the increasing "Chinese dependence" of Russia, then, Ostrovsky reminds, earlier the Russian Federation also depended on the West.
"While the Russian Federation has such a volume of production, while there is no growth rate, but the rate of decline, of course, we depend on someone all the time. That's how we found out now, it was unprofitable to depend on the West. We were imposed with a huge number of sanctions. Then they moved from one dependency to another. The policy of our state should be built so that we are not dependent", - Andrey Ostrovsky notes.
Secret negotiations
The question of why Comrade Xi is flying to the Russian president is, of course, of international importance.
Will the world see a new political alliance - now this topic has become the subject of heated discussions.
Andrey Ostrovsky wonders: where should China go if America has actually declared war on China.
"And not only economically, but even militarily. Look at the situation around Taiwan. This is not just a matter of economic pressure and economic war. On the one hand, the United States recognizes in a number of documents that Taiwan is part of the PRC, and at the same time, weapons are still supplied there, separatist tendencies are supported. And China's position is quite specific: The PRC will launch military actions against Taiwan if it declares its independence. And the United States takes these statements very seriously", - says Ostrovsky.
He confirms the position of those political scientists who saw the birth of a new political alliance in Xi Jinping's visit.
"Because neither Russia, by and large, has any special options. And China doesn't have any special options either. The US position is clear, as is the position of the West, which supports the US. There are a certain number of countries that take a neutral position. But today Russia and China must decide. Determine your position primarily on two issues: Russia on Taiwan. And China in Ukraine. These are the key positions. And if the points of view coincide here, then, of course, a transition from the treaty of friendship, cooperation, and good-neighborliness from 2001 to some other form of cooperation is inevitable", - says Andrey Ostrovsky.
And he suggests recalling the events of 1953 on the Korean peninsula, when the Soviet-Chinese treaty of February 14, 1950 saved from the Great World War. "The Americans were already going to drop an atomic bomb on the peninsula. Then the threat of world War was real," Ostrovsky recalls.
Will there be Chinese signals?
Andrey Vinogradov, on the contrary, believes that many observers overestimate the significance of XI's visit to Moscow.
"I don't think China will publicly provide assistance to Russia. Neither we nor the Chinese need to focus on this. And I also don't think that the Chinese will move away from their official position, which they have repeatedly replicated. Both at the congress and after it. It is unlikely that any emphasis will be placed on the fact that China supports Russia's position. As in the whole situation in Ukraine. And Americans don't need to focus on this either. They have a complicated relationship with China, there is a big game going on. So far, they have a huge turnover, dependence in supply chains, and many other factors. In general, I don't think that the Americans will overly focus on this visit," Vinogradov believes.
He is also confident that the world will not see any obvious political signals following the meeting in the Kremlin.
"A congress has just been held in China, the session of the National People's Congress ends today. Strategic documents are being adopted that determine the prospects for the development of the People's Republic of China for at least five years. Therefore, waiting for some changes in two months or even five months after the congress is simply not serious. The position that exists, it has already been officially stated, both at the session and in the materials of the congress. And after the congress, there were several press conferences by Wang Yi, where he expressed various views on the development of international relations. Everything will be in line with the positions that have already been set out. I do not think that serious breakthrough decisions will be made that will be significant for the balance of power in the international arena", - Andrey Vinogradov summed up.
Doctor of Economics Andrey Ostrovsky does not exclude that the issue of Beijing's military assistance to the Russian Federation is not removed from the agenda. "This is quite real, but the question arises in what form. Let's wait for the visit. Perhaps there will be joint speeches by the heads of state in front of the media, which, I am sure, the whole world will follow. In addition, it is discussed that Xi Jinping was even going to talk to Zelensky after his visit to Moscow. Probably, he will set some conditions that will be agreed upon during the meeting in the Kremlin", - Ostrovsky believes.
But economist Vladislav Inozemtsev in his tg channel noted that Xi is now the only person in the world who is able to complete his own. "Let's see what he will come to Moscow with in a week", - Inozemtsev said.
The visit of the Chinese leader to Moscow was reported by Reuters. Informally, different dates are called - March 21 or 23, or in the first decade of April. In December 2022, Vladimir Putin announced that he had invited Xi Jinping to visit Moscow. And the Chinese leader accepted the invitation.