Erdogan is more predictable. Which Turkish president is more profitable for Russia

As Novye Izvestia has already reported, the opposition in Turkey has nominated a single presidential candidate - Kilicdaroglu Kemal, the leader of the "Republican People's Party", created by the founder of the Turkish Republic, Mustafa Kemal (Ataturk). In recent years, the Father of the Nation party, as it is called in Turkey, has been in opposition to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party.

Erdogan himself is also officially nominated for the Turkish presidential election. There is nothing unexpected in this, but the outcome of the elections is far from a foregone conclusion, experts say, since the Turkish economy is in a deep crisis, and after a devastating earthquake — on the verge of disaster. This may lead to unpredictable steps towards Russia, which the Turkish president will be ready to take for the sake of political points among the domestic audience or international economic assistance.

Analysts note that most likely, the opposition will actively use the map with the recent earthquake, accusing Erdogan of insufficient efforts to eliminate the consequences, corruption in the construction sector, etc. Istanbul, most likely, will choose the opposition, the east of the country - someone who will be for the Kurds, and it is difficult to say about other regions at the moment - the earthquake has made its own adjustments, and everything depends on how the candidates play this card, first of all, the incumbent president himself.

One of Erdogan's election moves before the presidential and parliamentary elections was to raise salaries. The President announced that the Turkish minimum wage will rise one and a half times to $455, which is almost twice as high as in Russia. In addition, the Turkish authorities have abolished income tax and stamp duty (state duty) from the minimum wage. However, experts note that the increase in wages does not keep pace with hyperinflation: since the beginning of the year, prices in Turkey have increased by almost 85%, and the Turkish lira has depreciated by almost 30%. Economists are also not happy about this news, since the increase in the minimum wage will further accelerate inflation by increasing consumption. But Erdogan is ready to do anything to save his falling rating, which at the end of last year was already below 50%, and his party is below 30% at all.

Today, judging by polls, Kilicdaroglu is already beating his rival with 54% of the vote, but his party is still inferior to Erdogan's party with 28%.

It is curious that Kilicdaroglu does not want to change Turkish policy towards Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, that is, in all those points where Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the barricades.

Although, as the experts of the Accents channel explain, Kilicdaroglu (like Erdogan) is by no means a pro-Western politician, and stands, albeit with general phrases, for further rapprochement with Russia.

At the same time, he criticizes the main Russian investment projects in Turkey and demands to reduce Turkey's dependence on Russian gas, on which Turkey depends by a third. The candidate also criticized the construction of the Akkuyu NPP, which Rosatom is engaged in, and he will also be engaged in its operation, while Kilicdaroglu demands that the Turkish side deal with it.

Experts believe that for Moscow, the election of this opposition leader will be more dangerous than keeping a more predictable Erdogan in power.