According to the Turkish scenario: the ruble can expect a strong devaluation

As Novye Izvestia has already reported, the US dollar is storming the 79-80 line, which has not happened since mid-2022. What is behind the weakening of the Russian currency?

Financial analyst Yevgeny Kogan names the key factors of what is happening with the ruble:

- The end of the tax period on March 28;

- Decrease in export volumes;

- Increase in import volumes;

- The factor of geopolitical pressure.

At the same time, the Russian currency was not saved even by the rise in oil prices, it is still weakening. Due to the OPEC+ decision to reduce production by 1.66 million barrels. in a day, the price of Brent jumped by 8%.

"The fact is that due to sanctions, restrictions on the movement of capital, and the sale of yuan from reserves, the correlation of the behavior of the ruble and oil has decreased somewhat," the expert explains. 

To this, it is also worth adding the words of Anton Siluanov about "a decrease in income due to energy prices that are lower than budgeted." According to the data, expenses as of March 28 amounted to 7.5 trillion rubles, and revenues — 3.49 trillion rubles. Let me remind you that the budget for the whole of 2023 has a deficit of 2.9 trillion rubles."

What to expect next?

Yevgeny Kogan does not promise a quick and hard devaluation: "In principle, we have now reached the levels that, probably, plus or minus everyone was waiting for, and have the right to decide as they want, and we are slowly starting to sell small volumes of futures contracts".

But the experts of the channel "Economism" are not so optimistic in their expectations:

"It's a holiday for exporters today.

MOEH has broken 2500 points, oil is growing, the ruble is weakening. Accordingly, super-profits are growing - both oil and gas, and the budget. Even if it is, relatively speaking, a short-term jump.

In principle, with such a price tag for fuel, it would be possible to safely roll back the ruble somewhere in the area of 70-72. There are just a few "buts" - a budget deficit with a shortage of revenues from oil and gas, sales of Urals below $ 50 per barrel, according to the Ministry of Finance, the end of the tax period and, in fact, the imbalance of imports with exports - so far it is quite serious, since there is really nothing to export around resources. Trunks, as you know, are a slightly different story.

The market may now follow the Iranian/Turkish scenario. A strong growth in stocks will be accompanied by a strong devaluation. At the same time, only a very limited group of people will benefit from this, and then on the short-term horizon. Now there is no question of how to reinvest profits. Now the focus is on how to withdraw money from the country in a roundabout way. That's what they'll be puffing up about so far".