The Washington Post: The United States expects modest successes of Ukraine in the counteroffensive

"According to American intelligence estimates, Ukraine's problems may lead to the fact that its armed forces will "significantly" fall short of the original goals of "returning territories" occupied by Russia in the spring of 2022", - Kommersant notes.

WP sources consider unlikely the development of a scenario in which the AFU will be able to cut the land route to Crimea, but expect that the Ukrainian army will at least be able to "threaten the free movement of Russian equipment and personnel".

According to the publication, during the counteroffensive Kiev planned to simultaneously advance in the east and south. At the same time, "shortcomings in the formation of forces and support" are noted in documents marked "top secret". In this regard, Washington expects minor "territorial acquisitions". The United States noted the potential to strengthen Russian defense, as well as "constant shortcomings" in the preparation and supply of ammunition from Ukraine. The publication notes that they "will probably slow down progress and aggravate losses during the offensive."

WP suggests that secret documents about the modest successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the counteroffensive that got into social networks could have been prepared by intelligence and radio intelligence using secret methods of the CIA and the National Security Agency, as well as with the assessment of the National Intelligence Council. They predict that Kiev will not be able to get as many territories as in the fall of 2022.

After that, an assessment was prepared on the prospects of a counteroffensive, which was brought to the Ukrainian partners. The US wanted to make sure that "Kiev's offensive ambitions correspond to its capabilities". For these purposes, staff exercises were organized, during which the Ukrainian military leaders were shown the options for the development of the offensive and the possible consequences of the dispersal of forces. The newspaper's sources added that Kiev is beginning to understand the limited potential of a counteroffensive, so Ukraine is "preparing accordingly".

One of the Ukrainian high-ranking officials did not refute the newspaper's information, noting that the information was "partly true." Another said that the leak is unlikely to prevent a counteroffensive. He stressed that since November, the following direction for the offensive has been known: "first Melitopol, and then Berdyansk." At the same time, the location itself can be changed.

Secret documents of American intelligence in social networks were discovered by the US media last week. They note the problems of Ukrainian air defense systems, outline the plans of the Ukrainian command, and describe the intelligence activities of the United States. There is also an opinion that the documents that got into the Network are disinformation.