IMF: global public debt will approach 100% of GDP by 2028

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports a high growth of public debt around the world, exceeding the pre-pandemic forecast. By 2028, this figure will reach close to 100% of global GDP. One of the largest growth factors are the economies of the United States and China.

The IMF predicts that the US public debt will grow by 3 percentage points annually, reaching more than 135% of the country's GDP by 2028. China's public debt will also continue to grow, starting at 82.4% of GDP in 2023 and reaching 104.9% by 2028.

In the "Tax Monitoring" report of April 2023, the IMF warns that the risks of uncontrolled growth of public debt are very high, and it is necessary to reduce the debt burden, especially for developing countries. The organization's analysts advise national regulators to strengthen crisis management mechanisms and pay attention to troubled financial institutions. This is due to the recent banking shock in the US.

The director of the IMF's Budget Department, Vitor Gaspard, warns that the worst crisis is the financial crisis, which may coincide with the sovereign debt crisis, which is a fatal loop that must be avoided. He also points out that the need for aggressive interest rate increases, which regulators use, in particular, to combat inflation, may weaken a more stringent fiscal policy by curbing demand.