Posted 13 апреля, 06:01
Published 13 апреля, 06:01
Modified 13 апреля, 06:56
Updated 13 апреля, 06:56
According to RBC, referring to a study by experts of the A.G. Vishnevsky Institute of Demography of the Higher School of Economics Valery Yumaguzin and Maria Vinnik, until 2100 in Russia, the increase in the number of migrants should be about 390 thousand to 1.1 million people every year - so it will be possible to avoid a reduction in the population.
In the course of the study, the number of compensatory (replacement) migration was calculated — the net number of incoming migrants to compensate for the natural population loss in three scenarios at different levels of fertility, life expectancy and population outflow. Without a migration influx, none of them, even favorable ones, implies a significant population growth by the end of the century compared to the current number. In the case of a negative scenario, Russia will need 1.1 million migration growth every year in the next almost 80 years. If it is completely removed, the population by 2100 will be twice as low as it is now — 67.4 million people.
Since 2018, the population in the country has been declining. Last year, it fell by 533 thousand people. At the beginning of this year, the figure was 146.45 million people. The forecast takes into account data on fertility, mortality, life expectancy and migration growth. However, according to experts, in two of the three forecast scenarios, this is not enough to maintain the current population level. To solve this problem, the volume of compensatory migration was calculated, which can maintain the population at about 146 million people by the end of the century.