Posted 6 июля 2023,, 20:26
Published 6 июля 2023,, 20:26
Modified 7 июля 2023,, 13:25
Updated 7 июля 2023,, 13:25
The rise in price of goods is often talked about. At first glance, everything is logical: there are no full-fledged independent production of household appliances and electronics in Russia, we depend on imports. There are no people willing to accept rubles as payment, and the yuan still occupies less than 2% in international settlements. Everyone needs US dollars or euros. Therefore, the dollar is getting more expensive — household appliances with electronics are also getting more expensive. Only last summer the ruble was almost 2 times stronger than it is now. And no one has rewritten the price tags in a smaller direction…
How justified is the upcoming rise in price and whether it is worth stocking up on household appliances, as the Russians did at the end of 2014, when banks rewrote the exchange rate several times a day — we understand the example of televisions. How can people find out without him that in Is everything fine in Russia?
Prices for televisions are published by Rosstat on a daily basis, so we have the opportunity to compare the cost of televisions depending on the dollar exchange rate. In July 2021, the dollar was at the level of 73.3 rubles, and televisions, according to official statistics, cost an average of 29145.9 rubles. That is, each TV cost $398. In July 2022, the dollar cost an average of 58.15 dollars, and televisions — 33878.66 rubles. That is, each cherished TV cost customers $ 582.6 — a 46% increase in price over the year when calculated in a strong currency. The dollar has fallen in price, and electronics have risen in price — so much for linking to the currency.
Televisions, according to Rosstat on June 26, cost 28654.56 rubles, a dollar that day cost 84 rubles. It turns out that the TVs are priced at $341. It turns out that the technique in Russia is very cheap now, and suppliers need an urgent price correction? This is not the case at all, explains economist Ivan Antropov.
— Importers and distributors do not buy electronics on the Asian market for a specific buyer in Russia — they conclude contracts for the supply of equipment with manufacturers, which stretch for six months to a year. The current prices for televisions are just a reflection of last year's strengthening of the ruble.
Therefore, now we are not seeing any attraction of unprecedented generosity. The ruble strengthened by 20% last summer, and televisions fell in price by 14% over the year. That is, suppliers have already put an increase in margin in the current prices. It is also worth remembering about the variety of models — adds Ivan Antropov.
— Rosstat takes into account only the actual prices of televisions, but does not take into account which TVs they are. Because of the sanctions, the structure of supplies has seriously changed: previously, people preferred electronics of well-known brands, and now they have to choose from Chinese nounames, which are initially of lower quality and cheaper to purchase than, for example, Sony or Philips.
It turns out that the desire to urgently raise prices by 10-15% is only the desire of sellers to make money as soon as possible on the HYPE that has risen around the dollar. And real deliveries at new prices will not reach us soon.
It is possible to understand whether the price increase is justified, or it is just a whim of distributors, when the cost of the goods is equal in different countries. As an example, let's take the Samsung brand, which is popular in different parts of the world — a 50-inch TV with an LED matrix. In Russia, it costs almost 40 thousand rubles. In Germany, on the MediaMarkt network, such a TV costs 499 euros or 49,500 rubles at the current amazing exchange rate of 99.2 rubles per euro.
There was no such TV model in the American Wallmart — there are more expensive TVs with OLED screens. Such a TV there costs $ 630 or 57330 rubles at the current exchange rate of 91 rubles. In Russia, such a TV will cost 65 thousand rubles — 13% more expensive than in the USA.
Even the current prices for electronics and household appliances in Russia is quite consistent with the world, adjusted for regional peculiarities. There is no obvious underestimation of prices and inconsistency with the soaring ruble exchange rate. But this fact will not stop the announced upcoming rise in price. The fall of the ruble by a third since the beginning of the year is a great reason to rewrite the price tags in stores, once again justifying everything with the exchange rate.