A feast for depositors. Will banks increase interest on deposits after September 15

Julia Suntsova

The banks needed a one-week pause to respond to the Central Bank's increase in the key rate from 8,5% to 12%. The backbone Russian banks have already adjusted the interest on short-term deposits, but the yield has only equaled the Central Bank rate.

Retail leaders — Sberbank, Alfa-Bank, Post Bank, Otkritie Bank offered deposits from 11-12%, that is, virtually without a surcharge to the level of the Central Bank rate. Until August 15, many credit institutions had interest rates on locomotive deposits and savings accounts starting from 9,5% — 10% — that is, plus 1%-1.5% to the key rate.

What are the interest rates on deposits today?

Of course, there are banks offering more than 12%, but these are rather exceptions.

ICD and Tinkov Bank have offers for deposits with interest rates up to 14% and 12,24% per annum, respectively, but, as they say, with * (asterisk) — that is, by taking on non-standard obligations.

For example, in the ICD, in order to get the maximum return on a deposit or a savings account, it is necessary to spend more than 10-20-100 thousand rubles monthly on the card of the same bank. For the maximum percentage, Tinkov needs to subscribe to the service, which costs 199-1999 rubles per month.

A number of banks offer more attractive terms — but only to new customers.

So, account holders in VTB is given 12% per month from the minimum balance, if you have not previously been VTB customers.

Gazprombank and Rosselkhoznadzor, the only ones, have better conditions for savings accounts than for deposits. In the first credit institution, it is 12,5%, in the second — 12,0% (the weighted average rate at the end of July was 9,5%.) But only those who have not previously applied to these banks can also take advantage of such conditions.

Earlier, the Bank of Russia allowed an additional increase in the key rate in case of increased pro-inflationary risks. The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank, which will consider the issue of the level of the key rate, is scheduled for September 15, 2023.

How the profitability of deposits will change after September 15. Expert forecasts

On ruble deposits, interest will follow exactly the same trajectory as the Central Bank's key rate. Most likely, it will still grow slightly or slow down by 12%, which means that there will definitely not be a decrease in the yield on deposits, rather, the yield will even increase, the experts interviewed by NI agree.

Nevertheless, the current relatively high level of interest rates on deposits is not forever.

— After the Russian Central Bank sharply inflated the key rate to 12%, some, but not all of our commercial banks began to raise deposit rates. What nuances should be taken into account when assessing the prospects for further changes in interest on deposits? The decision of the Bank of Russia on August 15 was explained by the large-scale collapse of the ruble and the corresponding expectation of inflationary risks. But, as we can see, the rise of the key rate to 12% did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate! At the same time, the collapse of the ruble continues to negatively affect the price level, which jeopardizes the implementation of the planned indicator for annual inflation. For this reason, at the next meeting of the Central Bank, most likely, the key rate will increase, — says an associate professor of the State University of Management, an expert of the State Duma and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Konstantin Andrianov.

Konstantin Andrianov's conclusion: we should expect a further increase in bank deposit rates. But you should not count on a serious increase. Unlike loan rates, the increase in deposit rates is proportional to the growth of the key rate, as a rule, does not occur.

— At the moment, the dollar / ruble currency pair is trading at the rate of 94 rubles 11 kopecks. An increase in the rate by 3.5 pp to 12% did not give a steady effect of strengthening the ruble as planned by the Central Bank. There is a possibility that on September 15 the rate will be raised to 14% — again to strengthen the ruble. It is still difficult to say how the rate will change before the end of the year, as it will largely depend on the current economic situation, inflation, consumer price index, GDP level and others, — Yulia Kuznetsova, an investment adviser in the Central Bank register, a member of the expert council for the protection of the rights of retail investors, agrees with Andrianov.

— It can be predicted that after September 15, proposals will appear in the lines of banks based on the calculation: the key rate of the Central Bank + 1% -1.5%. It is difficult to say what will happen by the end of 2023, since new sanctions and geopolitical upheavals cannot be ruled out. Last spring, for example, from March to June, rates on all banking products jumped sharply. Then the Central Bank managed to stabilize the situation, and banks cut both deposit yields and loan rates. Currently, there is no consensus in the forecasts of the key rate level among market participants. There are many analysts who believe that an increase is possible up to 14%. But such a level, in our opinion, will inevitably lead to a «freeze» of lending, which will negatively affect the economy as a whole. The current step of raising the Central Bank's key rate has partially already included the risk of a deterioration in the situation with rising inflation and instability of the national currency exchange rate, » comments financial analyst Irina Andrievskaya.

What strategy will be optimal for individual clients?

If the Bank of Russia decides to raise the key rate again on September 15, bank deposit rates will not rise immediately. It should be borne in mind that there is a certain time lag between the Central Bank's decision on the key rate and the corresponding correction of rates in the banking market. This lag is on average 3 months, says Konstantin Andrianov.

— The sharp increase in the key rate to 12% is also caused by the government's unwillingness to weaken the ruble below a kind of psychological mark of 100 rubles per dollar. The increase in inflation to 7,6% in annual terms is also significantly higher than the Central Bank's target of 4%. In my opinion, the Central Bank makes it clear that further rate increases are highly likely, which means that interest rates on bank deposits and savings accounts are likely to grow. If you listen to the rhetoric of the Central Bank and count on a rate increase in September, then it is not advisable to open deposits for a long time under current conditions, since if the key rate increases in a month, interest on deposits will also be increased. Perhaps it makes sense to wait for the next meeting of the Central Bank, » says independent financial adviser Alexey Rodin.

The August increase in interest on deposits was not so generous. Competition will force credit institutions to raise rates more aggressively, but in the fall. For depositors, this is a signal that interest on deposits and savings accounts may become higher. This means that depositors should leave money at hand for now — on a savings account, and not on an urgent deposit, Irina Andrievskaya agrees.

— If the interest on deposits will be higher after a month, then people will be able to transfer money only with the loss of interest on current deposits. But if the difference in rates is significant (as it was in the spring of 2022), then it will be more profitable to terminate the «old» deposit even with the loss of interest, » the expert clarifies.

The bank deposit does not have to be urgent. In other words, there should be no time limits on withdrawal in the terms of the contract. This gives you, as a potential investor, the opportunity, in the event of a more favorable offer, to castleboard and transfer your funds, experts agree.

Deposits in foreign currency are surprising

Paradoxically, but Russian depositors were able to make good money on deposits in foreign currency. If the savings were stored in dollars, then due to the exchange rate difference over the past six months, the income reached 40%. Neither the ruble deposit nor the savings accounts have such percentages.

Due to the de-dollarization rate, the popularity of dollar deposits has been declining over the past year, but banks still offer dollar deposits. And some of them at rates above 2%. So, the Bank has A HOUSE.RF — 2,8%, Sovcombank — 3%, Ak Bars of the Bank — 3,5%. Considering that over the past six months the dollar has risen sharply against the ruble, the income of depositors has additionally increased just by the amount of the exchange rate difference. Owners of yuan are also in the black, because the ruble has declined against the Chinese currency. Today, deposit rates in yuan can be found with an income above 3%. Alfa-Bank has 3,65%, ICD — 3,5%, DOM Bank.Russia — 3,5%, Sberbank — 3,35%. The exchange rate of the yuan against the ruble has also increased, so the owners of deposits in the Chinese currency with double income — from interest and exchange rate difference. That is, contrary to the rate of de-dollarization, a foreign currency contribution can bring a good income.

Deposit or savings account?

As a rule, the rate for bank deposits is higher. But deposits are limited by a moratorium on withdrawals until the end of the deposit period, and these are big risks. If the ruble collapses and inflation explodes, then this money on deposits cannot be saved, says Konstantin Andrianov.

A savings account seems to be more secure — there are no restrictions on withdrawal or replenishment, there is an opportunity to constantly increase the size of your deposit, and, accordingly, the amount of income on it.

The undoubted advantage of a savings account is that depositors will not only receive more interest for a short period of money placement, but also will not lose them, choosing a more profitable offer in the future, says Irina Andrievskaya.

— A short—term account and a savings account are essentially close to each other tools for storing money. A short-term deposit for 3-6 months blocks the opportunity to withdraw money quickly, but helps to get a higher percentage. On savings accounts, the interest is mostly lower than on deposits, but your money is yours at any time, you can also withdraw monthly from savings accounts and use the interest received, » says Daria Timokhina, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

Is it worth putting more than the amount of insurance compensation of 1.4 million rubles on the deposit?

It is not worth risking all the available savings, and it is better to put the funds in different baskets, and the baskets should be banks — either large state-owned or state-owned banks. In this case, depositors are maximally protected from the risks of bank bankruptcy, experts interviewed by NI agree.

— The financial condition of banks and competition, of course, affect the proposed deposit rates. All banks are actively fighting to attract customers' money. In the backbone banks, the rates do not differ much from each other, but small banks have begun to offer even higher rates on deposits, some offer 1%-2% higher than the key rate. But the pursuit of profitability in little—known and small banks, especially with the placement on accounts of more than the insured amount of ASV 1,400,000 rubles, is a very risky event, » notes Natalia Timoshkina, an independent financial adviser.

— According to the law «On Deposit Insurance» No. 177-FZ of December 23, 2003, the state guarantees the return of the deposit with interest in the amount of 1.4 million rubles in case of bank bankruptcy. Therefore, if you have accumulated more, it is safer to place money in different credit institutions. So you can not only save up by choosing the maximum rate, but also not lose money over the limit of the insured amount. Another practical advice is to place money in banks from the list of systemically important central banks — such as Sberbank, VTB, Alfa—Bank, Gazprombank, Post Bank, etc. The regulator updates this list every quarter. The probability of revoking the license of these credit institutions is minimal, and in the event of a full-scale crisis, the Central Bank will support them. This means that there is a risk of losing savings in excess of those insured by the state in large federal banks, but strive for zero.

Recall that the money of retail customers on foreign currency deposits is also insured by the state for an amount equivalent to 1.4 million rubles and will be returned in case of bank bankruptcy, » comments financial analyst Irina Andrievskaya.

In difficult times, the risk of bank bankruptcy is increased, and the state guarantees for the return of funds in case of revocation of the license are limited to the amount of 1.4 million rubles. This amount does not apply to the deposit, but to the amount of money in all accounts and deposits of the bankrupt bank, warns Alexey Rodin.

If the credit institution does go bankrupt, the amount of compensation of more than 1.4 million can hardly be counted on only in special cases. In the form of exceptions, insurance compensation of up to 10 million rubles can be applied to «burnt money» if they were inherited, credited as a social payment, grant, compensation for damage, and also credited to the account after the sale of residential premises or land.

In addition, experts remind of an additional bonus for owners of «too large» savings: if the total amount of deposits exceeds 1 million rubles (collectively in any banks and on any accounts), then personal income tax will have to be paid from the total amount of interest on deposits, and this cannot be changed.

— After the Russian Central Bank sharply inflated the key rate to 12%, some, but not all of our commercial banks began to raise deposit rates. What nuances should be taken into account when assessing the prospects for further changes in interest on deposits? The decision of the Bank of Russia on August 15 was explained by the large-scale collapse of the ruble and the corresponding expectation of inflationary risks. But, as we can see, the rise of the key rate to 12% did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate! At the same time, the collapse of the ruble continues to negatively affect the price level, which jeopardizes the implementation of the planned indicator for annual inflation. For this reason, at the next meeting of the Central Bank, most likely, the key rate will increase, — says associate professor of the State University of Management, an expert of the State Duma and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Konstantin Andrianov.

— At the moment, the dollar / ruble currency pair is trading at the rate of 94 rubles 11 kopecks. An increase in the rate by 3.5 pp to 12% did not give a steady effect of strengthening the ruble as planned by the Central Bank. There is a possibility that on September 15 the rate will be raised to 14% — again to strengthen the ruble. It is still difficult to say how the rate will change before the end of the year, as it will largely depend on the current economic situation, the level of inflation, the consumer price Index, the level of GDP and others, — Yulia Kuznetsova, an investment adviser in the Central Bank register, a member of the expert council for the protection of the rights of retail investors, agrees with Andrianov.

Which strategy will be optimal for individual clients?

— The sharp rise in the key rate to 12% is also caused by the government's unwillingness to weaken the ruble below a kind of psychological mark of 100 rubles per dollar. The increase in inflation to 7,6% in annual terms is also significantly higher than the Central Bank's target of 4%. In my opinion, the Central Bank makes it clear that further rate increases are highly likely, which means that interest rates on bank deposits and savings accounts are likely to grow. If you listen to the rhetoric of the Central Bank and count on a rate increase in September, then it is not advisable to open deposits for a long time under current conditions, since if the key rate increases in a month, interest on deposits will also be increased. Perhaps it makes sense to wait for the next meeting of the Central Bank, » says independent financial adviser Alexey Rodin.

— A short—term account and a savings account are essentially close to each other tools for storing money. A short-term deposit for 3-6 months blocks the opportunity to withdraw money quickly, but helps to get a higher percentage. The interest on savings accounts is mostly lower than on deposits, but your money is yours at any time, you can also withdraw monthly from savings accounts and use the interest received, » says Daria Timokhina, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.