Aborted flight: what will happen after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Yevgeny Prigozhin and «Wagner» Utkin were killed. With them, the stage of the freedom of the PMCs ended, when there were armed formations in the country that were not subject and not fully controlled by the supreme power of Russia.

«Yes, Kitty, we are one family»

In 1979, when Prigozhin was 18 years old, the Kuibyshev Court of Leningrad sentenced him to 2 years probation for theft. 2 years later, 20-year-old Prigozhin was sentenced by the Zhdanov court of the same Leningrad to 13 years in prison for theft, robbery, fraud. However, he did not serve a full term: in 1988 Prigozhin was pardoned, and in 1990 he left the colony-settlement.

Further, there is not much information about the future «musician» with a machine gun — until his star rose, and he did not enter the president's inner circle, even through the kitchen.

After that, he was many things: he was a successful businessman, and the organizer of the «Troll Factory», and the creator of the mercenary army, and then the owner of the Wagner PMCs. The war in Syria, the conquest of Africa and the peak of career — Ukraine.

The King of Natural Resources

Of course, Prigozhin owned a dozen restaurants, and he supplied the Russian army with food, and schools, but this is not the main thing. The main thing is that with the help of military force for sensitive cases, he entered the natural resources market when this train had long gone for everyone.

Novye Izvestia told about what Prigozhin owned:

— Euro Policy — hydrocarbon production in Syria. In 2020, the company's revenue was $ 134 million and profit was $ 90 million; a year later, revenues were only $ 400 thousand, but the company's balance sheet was $ 92 million.

— «M Invest» — gold mining in Sudan. In 2021, its revenue amounted to $ 2.6 million.

— Two companies (their names are not given) — shipment of industrial equipment in Sudan and the CAR. Revenue in 2021 is more than $ 6 million.

— «Mercury» — Oil and gas sector of Syria. Until 2021, the company earned $ 67 million.

A $6 million yacht, a private jet, a business for his wife — y Prigozhin had everything like people, or rather, those who rose in the country with the arrival of Vladimir Putin. But he had something that became a curse for him,

Until July 24, Prigozhin's main asset was the Wagner PMCs. The army of convicts, murderers and thieves fought so much in Ukraine that regular units were equal to it. Prigozhin was not a man who knew how to integrate. He considered one person as his boss — the president. This led to numerous public showdowns with the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff. The tone became tougher, the performances became brighter, and the confrontation turned into a phase of «who is who».

The rebellion of Prigozhin and 5 thousand armed and past the crucible of Bakhmut fighters frightened many in power. His march to Moscow sealed his fate.

A song or a march?

The Russian people love the wayward, ready-for-anything heroes. Of course, Prigozhin was not. He simply miscalculated and swung at something that was not his rank. However, such an end is a very tough solution to the Prigozhin problem.

Now the Brief channel, with reference to the Wagner PMCs in Belarus, reports that an extraordinary council of commanders of a private military company may take place in the near future. The source of the BRIEF, surrounded by Prigozhin, wonders what commands in case of an emergency with the leadership received the commander of the Wagner PMCs, who are now stationed in Belarus near the border with Poland, and says that if the worst is confirmed, much will depend on the behavior of Alexander Lukashenko.

«There are Wagner veterans in every region of the country. There are those for whom „Wagner“ has become a passport to a new life or an exit to a new standard of living. There are those who saw their future in PMCs „Wagner.“ This is a very explosive mixture that is evenly distributed throughout the country. These people are now frozen in anticipation. Their further actions are still unpredictable.» — writes the Pskov news service. And it's hard not to agree with her.

Russian political scientists do not consider the crash of the plane with Yevgeny Prigozhin on board an accident. Sergey Markov has already written in his Telegram channel that we are talking about murder. He confirmed the same version to Novye Izvestia:

— It seems to me that the probability that this is an accidental death is extremely small. Most likely, this is the murder of Prigozhin, timed by the special services of Ukraine to Independence Day is tomorrow. If the Russian authorities had done this, they would have killed Prigozhin personally, and not the pilots, who were innocent. Since many people were killed, not just Prigozhin, it was almost certainly done by the Ukrainian authorities.

State Duma deputy, HSE Professor Oleg Matveichev fears that hostile forces will try to use Prigozhin's death:

— I think that the only comment now is that the opposition forces, the enemies, will try to use the death.

— How will the enemies be able to use this fact?

— There will be insinuations to launch.

Experts say that Prigozhin's death will have many consequences both for the internal life of the country and abroad. Sergey Markov notes that Prigozhin and Utkin created the best private army in the world, and its fate is now very uncertain:

— PMCs «Wagner» will exist. These structures will receive different guidance. But it remains to be seen whether this guide will be good. It must be said bluntly: Prigozhin and Utkin created the world's best private military company. Whether their receivers will be able to continue is a very, very open question.

The head of Bakster Group, political scientist Dmitry Gusev points out that the activities of Yevgeny Prigozhin go far beyond just the head of the PMCs:

— Prigozhin created a huge empire. There is a huge empire built by Prigozhin: with a private army, large government contracts in various fields, with real estate, with a large media block. He was the connecting link of this multicolored business empire. The question arises: who will manage it all, who remains in the team, how will it all be managed? How to make it so that it would all be safe for people.

In Africa, where Prigozhin actively promoted his personal and state interests, with the weakening of his structures, he will lose influence and Russia.

— In Niger, this will not affect in any way, because there is no evidence that Prigozhin was included in these cases. In the CAR, in Mali, in Burkina Faso, this will have a negative impact on governments friendly to Russia and, accordingly, positively for military structures hostile to Russia,» Markov is sure.

Dmitry Gusev urges not to disperse the situation and wait for the conclusions of the commission that will investigate the crash of the plane:

— If this is a terrorist attack, as a result of which a plane was shot down on the territory of Russia, this puts the issue of security on the agenda. Who cares who was there if it was a terrorist attack. But we have to wait. I urge you not to disperse. Let's wait for the official comments. It can be anything — a terrorist attack, a technical breakdown, an accident. But it is beneficial to the Ukrainian authorities. That's for sure.

Political scientist Alexey Mukhin:

«The probable tragic death as a result of the crash of a private plane E.Prigozhin and D. Utkin (the real head of the PMCs) complicates the situation around V.Putin and, at the same time, creates a special demonic image for him, which his opponents will no longer be able to ignore. On the one hand, this incident will definitely be attributed toPutin, and, on the other hand, it will allow the Russian side to make the opponents of the Russian president who are abroad worry (they will not feel safe). Third, V.'s opponents.Putin will now inevitably raise prices for his services, motivating this by the fact that their personal risks have increased.»