Real estate: apartments are getting more expensive after the dollar and the Central Bank rate

Julia Suntsova

New buildings are traditionally in steady demand, whatever it is due to the binding of preferential government programs to them.

As a result, prices rose in both segments, and across the country.

According to the federal real estate database Restate.ru, most apartments have risen in price in Krasnodar: plus 23 thousand rubles (+20%) per square meter in the secondary market and plus 14 thousand rubles (+11.1%) — in the primary. Almost the entire increase in prices for ready-made housing occurred in the last month, while the cost of new buildings did not change much at the same time.

«In the last two weeks, we have seen a serious compression of our database in most cities of the country, there have been significantly fewer ads. I can explain this by the desire to buy an apartment as soon as possible on the part of those who have approved a mortgage on the same terms. However, such a surge in demand on the secondary market will obviously be fleeting, since the rates on preferential programs are now 2-2.5 times less, and new buildings are out of competition against this background, » comments Andrey Dobry, head of the federal real estate database Restate.ru .

Kuban

Prices in both markets in Krasnodar are equal. However, the Kuban capital is not the only one of its kind where the secondary and new buildings cost the same — the same happened in Rostov-on-Don, Krasnoyarsk, Kazan.

At the same time, the Krasnodar market is striking in its diversity. Only in this region it is possible to buy an apartment in a house under construction at a bargain price, but it is not uncommon for future tenants to complete the house at their own expense.

At the same time, more and more business class projects and elite residential complexes are appearing in Krasnodar, which has not happened at all until now. The price tags for this housing can reach hundreds of millions of rubles — this is a consequence of the popularity of the city among wealthy buyers from other regions who prefer it to two capitals because of the climate.

Perm

Another million-plus city, where demand and prices for both ready—made and under construction apartments have sharply increased, is Perm. «Square» on the «primary» added more than 15 thousand rubles (17%), and on «secondary» — 11 thousand rubles (13%).

Moscow

In Moscow, prices on the primary market increased by 4%, however, in absolute numbers, the results of the last four months look more impressive — plus 13 thousand rubles per «square». However, ready—made housing in the capital has risen in price much more — immediately by 59 thousand rubles per square meter or by 18%. Thus, the Moscow «secondary» again began to cost more than the «primary», and significantly.

Today, the cost of entering the real estate market in the capital, if we do not consider studios, starts from 10 million rubles. For such money, you can buy a «one-bedroom apartment» in a new house in New Moscow or the same area inside the MKAD, but in older houses. If you search, you can even find a two-room apartment at this price, however, most likely, it will not be in the best condition and will require serious repairs.

Other millionaires

In the primary market, prices have increased significantly over the past four months in Volgograd — by 15 thousand rubles per «square» at once, or +19.5%. A typical offer is a spacious 35—meter «one-bedroom» in a house with a deadline in 2024, located in a habitable «sleeping bag». In ready-made housing in Volgograd, the average cost of a «square» also increased by 8%.

Housing has risen in price by 5-6% in Samara, Yekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk and Nizhny Novgorod. In some million-plus cities, prices have even dropped. For example, a square meter in St. Petersburg lost 6 thousand rubles or 2% in value, stopping at the figure of 202 thousand rubles. We add that the price list and on the «primary» in the city on The Neva has hardly changed. It turns out that the all-Russian trends do not apply to it.

Also, average prices decreased in Rostov-on-Don and Krasnoyarsk, but also not much — within 3,5%.

But in new buildings in Chelyabinsk, the square meter has added 11%. Now it costs 80.5 thousand rubles, but it is still the cheapest offer among all the «millionaires». For example, here you can buy a studio for less than 2 million rubles, and even in a rented house.

The average price in Nizhny Novgorod increased by 5%. In other megacities, the rise in price is insignificant — from 1 to 5%. And Samara and Ufa turned out to be the only megacities where the price tag for housing under construction has not changed at all.

Forecasts

In the previous few months, prices on the secondary market grew slowly by 0.7–0.9%. According to the results of the last 30 days, they have added 1,9% in million-plus cities, and this is the maximum since March 2022.

After the rise of the Central Bank's key rate, the growth of nominal prices in the real estate market accelerated. Offers with low prices have left the market, and this is a pattern for a period of high demand. After the increase in average market prices, the structure of supply in the housing market has changed, analysts say.

«In most houses under construction, the contribution of imported materials to the cost price is relatively small, but it would be wrong to reduce the impact of the exchange rate on the industry to zero. Russia provides itself with construction and finishing materials. The exception is materials for elite residential complexes. But at the same time, foreign equipment prevails on construction sites, and in large cities it is necessary to motivate workers with competitive salaries, a large proportion of whom are from Central Asia, for whom Russia is not the only place to apply labor. The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate affects, » explains the head of «Cian.Analysts» Alexey Popov.

In the future, an increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the spread in terms of lending to buyers in the primary and secondary markets, the analyst continues.

«In the new reality, a potential buyer will choose between 6-8% in preferential mortgage programs for new buildings and 13-14% in loans for housing in ready-made houses. There will be a shift in demand for the market of new buildings. The owners of apartments in the newly commissioned „secondary“ will have to adjust the price tag downward. We can see the same trend in the apartment segment, which is not covered by preferential programs, » Popov concludes.