There is almost no one to fight: why urgent mobilization of men over 50 years old has begun in Ukraine

Elena Petrova

In Kiev, early in the morning, the military enlistment office blocked the hostel where workers who came to work in the Ukrainian capital lived, writes TASS. All the men who were there were mobilized, eyewitnesses say.

«Everything is very tragic with the mobilization. They have already started to pick up in Kiev 50 plus. My colleague's husband is being taken away, who is well over 50,» such stories of Ukrainians can now often be heard.

The Ukrainian army lacks soldiers — now everyone has found out about it.

What are the losses of the Ukrainian army

The Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian authorities hide the real figures of losses among the combatants. Each side exaggerates the losses of the other side and is silent about its own dead. However, from the Pentagon documents that leaked to the network, it became known that American military analysts estimate the number of people killed on the Ukrainian side at 70 thousand people. «300x», or even more wounded — according to various sources, about 100 thousand to 120 thousand Ukrainian soldiers were wounded as a result of the fighting, NYT reports

Now, according to American journalists, about 500 thousand people are fighting at the front. Since the beginning of hostilities, about 1 million Ukrainians have been mobilized, and the country's regular army numbered about 200 thousand people until February 24, 2022. Thus, the total losses of the Ukrainian army are approaching 20% of those called to the front in the early spring of 2022.

Russian military analysts estimate the losses of Ukrainians killed only 3.5 times higher. Military expert Vyacheslav Shurygin counted 253 thousand dead. The wounded, according to his estimate, are about half a million people at all.

The Ukrainian authorities do not give any figures, but the country's Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said that the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not exceed the number of victims of the Turkish earthquake. And there are about 50 thousand of them. These estimates are much closer to the American ones, although no one knows the truth.

APU losses — is it a lot or a little?

Against the background of a new stage of mobilization, a new propaganda war broke out — what are its losses relative to the population?

Until 2022, the country's population numbered more than 48 million people. Of course, not everyone lived in the country, many, especially young men, went to work in Poland, Germany and other European countries. However, this outflow cannot even be compared with the migration of peoples that began after February 24, 2022. According to the UN, the number of refugees from Ukraine has exceeded 8 million people.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, known for his militaristic rhetoric, cited even more depressing figures yesterday. He believes that there are twice as many Ukrainians who have left the country: 17.9 million people. Slightly less than 20 million — 19.7 million people live in the territory controlled by the authorities in Kiev.

If this is true, then the task of the Ukrainian military authorities can be called «mission impossible» — it is almost impossible to compensate for the losses that American sources give.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance still believes that more than 41 million people live in the country, but this figure is political. The department also includes everyone living in the Crimea, in the Donbass and other territories where Russian troops are currently stationed.

German statistics predict that 37.6 million people will live on the territory of Ukraine in 2023. If all the refugees, of course, return home after the end of hostilities.

It is only clear that there are more losses relative to the entire population of the country in Ukraine than in Russia, regardless of whether to take American or Russian assessments. By the way, in February 2023, Rosstat reported that the country's population was 146 million 425 thousand people. If you believe what the NYT writes — three times as many soldiers are fighting on the front on the Russian side, then the population ratio, according to Western estimates, is the same as the ratio of combatants. But if we take the Russian figures, then Russia exceeds Ukraine, in terms of population, by 7 times. Common sense suggests that there are still fewer human resources on the Ukrainian side than on the Russian side, otherwise why would it be necessary to appeal to Western countries with a request to return draft dodgers or to call up men who have long been out of military age, even from the age of reservists.

What to do with the evaders?

According to the European press, there are not so few young men who do not want to take up arms, so they would become a real reserve for Ukraine.

In Germany alone, there are now slightly less than 1 million Ukrainians who fled the fighting. Indeed, 74% of adult Ukrainians are women. 8% are men over 60 years old. It turns out that 18% of men who fall under mobilization live in Germany.

If these figures are extrapolated to everyone who lives in Europe, and there are 4 million 70 thousand people, then excluding children — 700 thousand — it turns out that 600 thousand young men could replenish the APU. Of course, not all of them left using forged documents, for bribes at the border and at military enlistment offices. Even if we assume that there are several times fewer of them, the scale of the escape is impressive. However, it is now clear why the Ukrainian authorities have appealed to all countries to expel Ukrainian citizens living in Europe.

The reaction of the European authorities has not yet followed. It is safe to say that the Ukrainian authorities will not be able to get their citizens to the front so easily, and most importantly — quickly. Knowing the European realities, this undertaking will break against bureaucratic obstacles. And the soldiers at the front were needed yesterday.

Are only old men going into battles?

The Ukrainian military, in interviews with numerous analysts and commentators, say that unprepared and physically incapable recruits will not change the situation. Moreover, they ask the authorities not to send them such replenishment. Another problem is that they are thrown into hell without preparation. But few people listen to commanders — the military leadership of Ukraine has its own reasons and its own obligations.

Secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council Oleksiy Danilov denies that the AFU needs to mobilize 300,000 new soldiers, but says that «they will recruit as many as they need.»

If you follow the textbooks on military tactics, for the attacking side and 300 thousand additional fighters with three times the superiority of the Russian side will not be enough. However, the APU keeps its plans secret.

Military experts also express bewilderment at the methods by which the mobilization is conducted. In an interview with TSN, Ukrainian expert Vladislav Seleznev says:

«The replenishment of the Ukrainian army is ongoing. The logic of conscription of all men into the ranks of the Ukrainian army is absolutely stupid. For if, relatively speaking, 3 million men aged 18 to 60 years are called up to the ranks of the Ukrainian army, what of that will change? Where will we get such a quantity of uniforms, weapons, military equipment and ammunition for that armament in order to thoroughly and efficiently provide such an army with everything necessary?»