Posted 13 сентября 2023,, 09:07

Published 13 сентября 2023,, 09:07

Modified 13 сентября 2023,, 10:41

Updated 13 сентября 2023,, 10:41

Time to pay: Saudi Arabia and Russia have staged a severe shortage of oil in the world

Time to pay: Saudi Arabia and Russia have staged a severe shortage of oil in the world

13 сентября 2023, 09:07
The situation on the oil market can turn into a new global crisis, as it was in the late 2000s.

Analysts are extremely concerned about the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on oil markets, which records the continued growth of global oil demand: in 2023 it will reach 102.2 million barrels per day, which will be a new record.

Saudi Arabia and Russia

At the same time, Saudi Arabia voluntarily reduces oil production, and Russia — its exports. This means that the already low level of world oil reserves continues to decline, while high prices persist.

This process allowed Bloomberg analysts to conclude that Saudi Arabia and Russia has created a shortage in the world market, the largest in more than a decade: in the fourth quarter of 2023, it will amount to more than 3 million barrels per day.

It is clear that both of these states are interested in high prices. The Saudis are pursuing ambitious internal reforms, while Russia continues its own.

Analysts note that if oil production remains at the current level, the difference between supply and demand in the next quarter, when consumers will need about 30.7 million barrels per day, will double! According to OPEC forecasts, commercial world oil reserves will decrease by about 3.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and this, according to Bloomberg, will be the steepest drop since 2007: then both the world economy and oil prices grew very quickly on the eve of the financial crisis.

Only a catastrophe will stop the demand for oil

Experts of the Graphonomics channel also believe that the IEA report predicts catastrophic events:

«Otherwise, the agency's forecast that the apogee of demand for gas, oil and coal will occur in this decade cannot be interpreted. The graph shows the per capita consumption of gasoline and diesel on the planet — the basic type of fuel.

Over the past 50 years, per capita consumption has hardly changed and this is a constant of the economy. That is, all the energy-efficient programs of the developed world, electric mobility, etc., could not lead to a reduction in the consumption of motor fuel per person. These programs only manage to compensate for the growing demand in Asia. Simply put, everything that a German car won't eat will eat a Chinese one. And there is also a reserve in the form of 1.5 billion Hindus, hundreds of millions of Pakistanis, Nigerians and Indonesians. All of them claim their couple liters of gasoline a day. Demand will continue to increase, at least due to the growing population.

The only thing that can stop the growth of demand (and population) — pandemic, war, crisis. Apparently, this is embedded in the models of the IEA.»

It's good for us, not so good for the West

Financial analyst Evgeny Kogan called this situation in his channel — the energy crisis 2.0:

«The apple doesn 't fall far from the apple tree — as in Russia, Western countries are faced with rising gasoline prices amid the threat of the largest oil shortage since 2007.

And what actually happened, why did the seemingly forgotten «black swan» return? — The imbalance of supply and demand is to blame for everything.

1️. Investors fear that as a result of the «withdrawal» of 1.3 million b /d from the market by Russia and Saudi Arabia, a deficit of 3.3 million b / d will form on the market — a 16-year maximum.

2️. The pressure on prices is exerted by a decrease crude oil reserves in the United States at the beginning of September are about 4,3% below the five—year average, to 416.6 million barrels, and oil — by 5,1%, to 214.7 million barrels.

3️. The main thing. Energy demand remains high due to the resilience of the US economy to high rates and an increase in oil and gas imports by China ahead of winter.

What's next?

If for us the rise in prices for black gold is a hope for leveling the budget and strengthening the ruble, then for Western countries it is primarily a pro-inflationary threat.

The implementation of the Goldman Sachs forecast at a price of $107 per barrel in 2024 threatens, if not new rate increases, then keeping them at a high level for a long time.

Is it possible to increase the share in the securities of Russian oil companies?

I would wait for the announcement of the rate decision by the Bank of Russia and the reaction of the ruble to it. If the decline continues, then probably yes.»