Historical checkmate: Artsakh ceased to exist and became Nagorno-Karabakh

Elena Petrova, Natalia Seibil

Today there was an event that will go down in world history. The head of Nagorno-Karabakh announced the dissolution of all state institutions. Artsakh officially ceases to exist. Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor Yuli Nisnevich says: «This has not happened yet.»

Why the end of Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be compared with the collapse of the Soviet Union

— I do not know of such phenomena as the self—dissolution of state formations before, — admits Professor Nisnevich. There are no analogues to this, at least in Europe. However, it is also impossible to compare today's event with the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The Soviet Union collapsed for internal reasons. The situation in Karabakh is completely different, Yuli Nisnevich points out:

— Here the so-called «self-release» occurred under the influence of force. The USSR collapsed without the use of force. The self—dissolution of the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh is a forced measure, because the military operation of Azerbaijan has practically deprived prospects of the opportunity to exist as an independent state entity. This is really a completely unexpected phenomenon, there was no such thing.

The history of this land is full of blood, tears and hardships. Now a situation is developing in Nagorno-Karabakh that repeats the events of 30 years ago. When several districts were settled by Azerbaijanis in 2020, after the proclamation of the Archats, all of them had to give up everything for fear of reprisals and leave their homes. Now the same fate awaits the 120,000 Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Why is Nagorno — Karabakh not Kosovo and not Biafra

In the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, military victories go hand in hand with ethnic cleansing. History has proved this many times. Whoever takes control of Artsakh displaces the population that lived here. Representatives of the defeated ethnic group are forced to leave. Armenians are leaving Karabakh now. The situation was different in Kosovo. Yes, there were ethnic cleansing, but the statehood did not collapse, says Yuli Nisnevich:

— There were attempts of military ethnic cleansing, but at the same time Serbs live in Kosovo is a whole compact area. There are ethnic conflicts, but there is no such thing that they leave Kosovo en masse. And secondly, Kosovo exists as a partially recognized state entity, but it has not become part of Albania. This is a completely different story.

There was a civil war with Biafra in Nigeria in the 1960s, says historian Alexei Makarkin. Biafra was separated from Nigeria for a while. It had its own statehood, capital, flag, army, which fought for several years. The ethnic factor, religion, and the factor of tribal unions also played a role there:

— Biafra is an Igbo people. The leadership of Biafra emigrated abroad for a while, but it would be impossible to evict the people. There is a large population there, and the central authorities did not set themselves such a task, and there was nowhere for Igbo to move. There was an experience of various deportations, but this is a multi-million population, not 50 or 100 thousand. They took a different path there. Even during the war, the territorial structure was changed. Nigeria has increased the number of states.

What will happen to this territory

The footage of the arrest of former Artsakh State Minister Ruben Vardanyan introduced an element of warning to anyone who would dare to doubt Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh. The banker and billionaire want to be prosecuted for «financing terrorism.» Will it go to court, or will Russia stand up for its former oligarch, will show how much our country will be involved in the post-war settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, or, as the telegram channels write, will do without it.

Judging by Nikol Pashinyan's statement, Azerbaijan is going to introduce its own governing bodies.

— An Azerbaijani administration, Azerbaijani governing bodies will be created. Azerbaijan will definitely have no problems from the point of view of state construction. Since this is the territory of Azerbaijan, which Pashinyan also acknowledged, Azerbaijani governing bodies will be introduced there. If there is a large migration of the Armenian population, it is clear that the ethnic composition of these bodies will also not be Armenian.

The population is already leaving. The Armenian authorities have prepared a camp for refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh for 40 thousand people. 47 thousand former residents of Artsakh have already come to Armenia. As «NI» wrote, everyone can leave, except for the elderly, who will remain to take care of the graves of their children who fell for the independence of the country, which has disappeared today.

However, some experts have doubts that Azerbaijanis will willingly go to live in Nagorno-Karabakh. The memory is too fresh when I had to give up everything and move to Azerbaijan, although Stepanakert is considered an Azerbaijani city, and it is called Khankendi.

Historian Alexey Makarkin does not share this opinion:

— The Azerbaijanis will return. Maybe there will be temporary transitional bodies. The permanent elections will be held when the Azerbaijanis return and make up the majority. The Armenian population is leaving, these places will be populated by other people who have been waiting for this for 30 years.

Azerbaijan is a rich oil country, and money is not a problem here. Therefore, the Azerbaijani leadership will make a showcase of Nagorno-Karabakh by banning the word «Artsakh» and demonstrating to the international community the benefits for the population after the return of Karabakh under the wing of Baku.

— We see this on the example of Shusha, which Azerbaijan occupied in 2020. The population has returned there, it is clear that not everyone. But it was done quite demonstratively — the Armenians left and the Azerbaijanis returned, and on May 7, 2021, Ilham Aliyev signed a decree recognizing the Karabakh city of Shushi as the cultural capital of Azerbaijan.

Historical memory as a factor of politics

Armenia and Azerbaijan, even after more than 100 years, cannot get rid of the curse of the genocide of the Armenian people by Turkey, which it does not recognize. This story continues before our eyes.

— Some kind of migration of peoples is possible. Maybe this is such a distant reminder of the history of 1915 with Turkey, when the genocide of the Armenian people took place there. And the territories are now inhabited by Turks. Apparently, this memory is working today. Then there was an outright genocide. So far, this has not been seen from Azerbaijan, in this form. Maybe a quiet displacement will begin. It can be. It has only just begun.

Armenians and Azerbaijanis became the first refugees in In the Soviet Union, Alexey Makarkin recalls this sad fact.

Now Armenia needs to help 100 thousand refugees. This is a big test for a small country. When Armenians chose the «peace party» in the person of Nikol Pashinyan instead of the «war party», experts said that the country was tired of the ongoing confrontation. Now they will have to deal with the consequences of the peace that has come.