The sixth package of sanctions: is it as scary as it seems

Yekaterina Maksimova

Novye Izvestia reported that among the most important points of the sixth package of sanctions is the refusal EU countries from imports of Russian oil transported by sea (a temporary derogation is allowed only for supplies to Bulgaria and Croatia). Also, the EU Council once again "walked" through the banking system of Russia: SWIFT will be disconnected Sberbank, Rosselkhozbank, Moscow Credit Bank and Belarusian Bank for Development and Reconstruction.

Oil embargo, but so far in parts

The sixth package of sanctions prohibits the delivery of Russian oil by sea, but so far does not affect deliveries through the Druzhba central oil pipeline, which Poland and Germany cannot do without. The EU countries have announced that they plan to abandon the oil pipeline in the future.

According to the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, a set of sanctions measures will lead to a 90% reduction in Russian oil supplies to Europe by the end of 2022.

Bloomberg stated that Russia's losses in this case would amount to more than $20 billion a year. Only a ban on oil supplies by sea could cause Russia to lose about $10 billion a year in export earnings. The cessation of supplies through the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Poland and Germany will lead to losses of another $12 billion (based on 2021 volumes and an average Urals oil price this year of $85 per barrel).

Experts questioned the accuracy of Bloomberg's forecasts. “The partial oil embargo will put pressure on export revenues, but, in general, we believe that the effect will be lower than Bloomberg estimates, as it is offset by an increase in shipments to Asia and rising prices,” BCS Express telegram channel quotes Promsvyazbank analysts.

SWIFT banks are not afraid

Sberbank, without waiting for the official approval of the sixth package of sanctions, assured on May 31 that targeted sanctions would not affect the work of the bank.

"Sberbank is operating normally. The main restrictions are already in place. Disconnecting from SWIFT does not change the current situation in international settlements. Domestic transactions do not depend on SWIFT and will be carried out by the bank in the standard mode", - Sberbank's press service was quoted by TASS. Moscow Credit The bank, according to the publication, also issued a similar statement.

“Among the largest state-owned banks, only one remained connected to SWIFT (allows for international interbank transfers and settlements). Payments via Union pay (allows the use of cards abroad) can work without SWIFT at card issuing banks. Here the situation is largely determined by the risk of them getting into the SDN (specially designated nationals or black list, - editor's note)”, - say Promsvyazbank analysts.