The dollar-ruble pair may again retreat to the level of 60 rubles, says the chief analyst at Promsvyazbank Yegor Zhilnikov. Analysts of the bank "Saint-Petersburg" do not rule out that in the coming days the dollar may fall even below 60 rubles. Although on Monday, June 6, the dollar rose by 1.19% to 61.67 rubles.
Bank Saint Petersburg experts note that the sixth package of EU sanctions, announced on July 3, did not have a noticeable impact on the ruble. “Sanctions no longer affect. The oil embargo remains a mysterious mechanism for influence, as there are options for circumventing this ban”, - Stepan Sumin, asset manager at Cresco Finance, quotes Finam.
Andrey Kochetkov, a leading analyst at Otkritie Investments, adds that the end of the tax period for exporters did not lead to a weakening of the national currency either (companies transfer VAT, MET and excises to the budget in May). One of the reasons for the continued strengthening of the ruble is that the demand for the currency remains insignificant. Neither exporters nor the population buy it now.
“The Ministry of Finance reported 263.7 billion additional oil and gas revenues in May, and also expects 392.9 billion rubles of additional income. That is, the budget is not yet experiencing problems with funding. The funds received are not directed to the purchase of currency, or currency equivalents of other countries. Any balance in the market will appear only with the revival of imports,” Andrey Kochetkov believes. Yegor Zhilnikov adds that the dollar trading volumes also decreased due to the traditional decline in exporters' activity at the beginning of the month.
“For the ruble, the meeting of the Central Bank on June 10 is important, at which the regulator can lower the rate by 1%. But it can surprise and lower to 8-9%. This event may contribute to a short-term weakening of the ruble. But the general trend for the dollar remains downward,” says Stepan Sumin.
BCS-Express expert Mikhail Meltser believes that the US dollar is still capable of fighting: in the second half of the year, exports from the country may slow down, while imports may increase. In his opinion, although the volatility around 61 per dollar remains, the long-term target of 70 rubles per dollar is not removed. Analysts of the Bank "Saint-Petersburg", allowing the depreciation in the coming days (below 60 rubles per dollar) believe that "in general, it still has the potential for growth in the direction of 65 rubles".